Michigan vs Wisconsin prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 262-71-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 11-2 vs Wisconsin

• Discounting UCLA – since M hasn’t played them in conference yet – Wisconsin is the conference school I have seen least recently. I’ve seen M play 32 conference opponents since M last faced Wisconsin (28-4 in those games)

M is 31-8 in the 4th attended game of the season
M is 43-7 on homecoming (41-7 on Michigan’s homecoming)
M is 123-27-1 in noon or 12:30 starts
M is 161-46-1 vs conference opponents
M is 8-0 when ranked 20th
M is 192-28-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 100-26 vs. schools with mascots deemed LIGHTER than a Wolverine
M is 218-49-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 0-2 on October 4
M is 253-66-1 on Saturday
M is 0-0 against Head coaches coaching their 3rd different team against Michigan

• Fickell will break a tie with 10 other coaches that have led 2 schools against
• M is 30-10 against 2 school coaches
• Counting Brady Hoke (M and Ball State), M is 56-21 

 

Is easy when you look at the data 

M 35

W 10 

Michigan - Nebraska 2025

Michigan 21

Nebraska 29

M at Nebraska prediction based on feeling overdressed

As head coach, Biff Poggi wore a shirt with sleeves and long pants at Warde Manuel's request.

Normally a sleeveless shirt and shorts guy, Poggi says he felt "wrapped like a mummy." And if it been any warmer, "clothes would have been coming off."

📷: Bryan Fuller / MGoBlog pic.twitter.com/qwEHidRzNH

— Alejandro Zúñiga (@ByAZuniga) September 15, 2025

 

Interim coach Biff Poggi is typically a shorts and sleeveless guy. He'll be overdressed again Saturday afternoon in Lincoln. 

Lots of questions about both teams, really.

Is the Michigan offense really opened up for good? Or was that a "make them have to practice against it" sort of game?

Can the M defensive line create pressure against a power 4 O-line? 

Does M have a better plan for the 3-3-5 - TCU-like defense Nebraska employs?

Can M have a game with no special teams mistakes?

Let's go with: Yes, No, Yes, Yes 

 M 24 Nebraska 23 

Michigan - Central Michigan 2025

Michigan 35

Central Michigan 17

M vs CMU post based on historical data

Michigan is 261-71-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 3-0 vs Central Michigan (CMU is 0-5 in all games I have attended)
M is 37-2 in the third attended game of the season
M is 122-27-1 in noon or 12:30 starts
M is 100-25 vs non-conference opponents
M is 3-2 when ranked 23rd
M is 25-1 vs. teams in the MAC
M is 34-11 vs teams from Michigan
M is 173-4-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 217-49-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 2-0 on September 13
M is 252-66-1 on Saturday
M is 5-0 with an interim head coach
M is 13-4 vs teams with a head coach that has a last name that makes one think of a frat party
M is 23-3 in the QB’s 3rd start

It’s easy when you look at the data

M 39

CMU 7 

Trophy Update - Swamp Shocker

The first jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy update of 2025 - South Florida knocks off Florida 18-16.

In their first ever game playing for the Trophy, the Bulls took down their in-state "powerhouse". 

• The Gators dropped to 28-24 in Trophy Games
• Prior to USF's victory, the most recent first time Trophy holder was Kansas State in 2012
• The Bulls are the first to win in their first chance in a Trophy game since Tulsa in 1996 

USF faces another in-state power school in Miami this week. If they pull a second upset, they do not face another "power 4" the rest of the season.

Michigan - Oklahoma 2025

Michigan 15

Oklahoma 29

M vs Oklahoma prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 261-70-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated) 

 

This will be the 20th state I have seen M play a game in – 22nd state for college football over all

 

M is 60-15 when facing a team for the first time
M is 31-7 in the second attended game of the season
M is 28-6 in night games
M is 100-24 vs non-conference opponents
M is 8-1 when ranked 15th
M is 2-0 vs teams ranked 18th
M is 8-5 vs. teams in the SEC
M is 1-0 vs teams from Oklahoma
M is 100-24 vs non-conference opponents
M is 172-4-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 44-21 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 29-14 in true road games
M is 16-7 when playing in a stadium the first time (17-11 – when including the same stadium with a new name)
M is 4-0 in Memorial Stadiums (Michigan Stadium and probably others are technically Memorial stadiums, but it’s not in the recognized name)
M is 4-1 when their head coach attended the school they are competing against
M is 2-0 on September 6
M is 252-65-1 on Saturday


It’s easy when you look at the data (but I hope I'm wrong)

M 20

Oklahoma 26 

 

 

Michigan - New Mexico 2025

 Michigan 36

New Mexico 11

Season Prediction 2025

 9-3

M vs New Mexico prediction based on historical data

 

Michigan is 260-70-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
 

This will be my 50th season attending Michigan football games!

M is 59-15 when facing a team for the first time
M is 43-6 in the first attended game of the season
M is 28-3 with a starting QB in his first start
M is 99-24 vs non-conference opponents
M is 10-0 when ranked 14th
M is 10-1 vs. teams in the Mountain West
M is 12-3 vs teams whose head coach has a 3-letter last name
M is 29-5 the first time facing a team from a particular state
M is 99-24 vs non-conference opponents
M is 171-4-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 216-49 in Michigan Stadium
M is 2-1 on August 30
M is 251-65-1 on Saturday
M is 10-3 vs schools with canine based nicknames
 

It’s easy when you look at the data 

M 48

New Mexico 6
 

A very late "too early prediction" for 2025

vs New Mexico W
@ Oklahoma L
vs Central Michigan W
@ Nebraska W
vs Wisconsin W
@ USC W
vs Washington W
@ Michigan State W
vs Purdue W
@ Northwestern W
@ Maryland W
vs Ohio State L 

Michigan, 10-2, 8-1, does not make the conference championship game, but makes the playoff as the 8th seed.

M hosts the #9 seeded LSU Tigers W

Then faces #1 Texas in the Cotton Bowl L