Oscar 2011 predicitions based on the movies I've seen

For some reason, I've seen more of the Oscar nominated movies/actors etc. this year than in any year I can remember. I'm sure you've all been waiting for my picks so here goes:

Best Picture (Entries in bold are those I've seen):
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids are Alright
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

I was surprised how much I liked The Fighter, and it is the most sports related and therefore topical for the blog, but I'd only rank it third of my choices. The Social Network had such great dialogue, but that only gets it to #2. My winner is The King's Speech.

Lead Actor:
Javier Bardem
Jeff Bridges
Jesse Eisenberg
Colin Firth
James Franco

The experts already have this one for Firth. And Oscar does love a British Accent. I don't think he'll win, but I'd pick Eisenberg.

Lead Actress:
Annette Benning
Nicole Kidman
Jennifer Lawrence
Natalie Portman
Michelle Williams

This is a walkover for Portman. I was not impressed with Winter's Bone and that hurts Lawrence's chances

Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale
John Hawkes
Jeremy Renner
Mark Ruffalo
Georfrey Rush

Bale was really good in The Fighter, but at times I felt like he was doing a Michael J. Fox Impression in a bad Parkinson's phase. I'd go with Rush in a close one.

Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams
Helena Bonham Carter
Melissa Leo
Hailee Steinfeld
Jacki Weaver

Melissa Leo has the toughest role of the three as the unlikeable mother of The Fighter(s). But I could never go against the Queen Mum - Helena Bonham Carter.

Animated Film: Of the nominated films, I only saw Toy Story 3 - and I'm sure it will win. But I'd pick Despicable Me.

Art Direction - I've seen 3 1/2 out of the 5 (Parts of Alice In Wonderland on cable) - I don't see how you can beat Inception for anything "Artsy".

Cinematography - 4 of the 5 - Inception again

Costume Design - 1.5 of 5 - King's Speech

Directing - 4 of 5 - How do you separate that from best film? - King's Speech

Documentary/doc short subject - 0 for 10 :-(

Editing - 4 of 5 - Black Swan had some crazy scenes - so they win!

Foreign language - 0/5

Makeup - 0/3

Music (score) - 3/5 - The Social Network

Music (song) - 1/4 - although I've heard the Tangled soundtrack - I have to pick Toy Story 3 here

Short film - live action/animated - 0-10

Sound Editing 2/5 - Inception

Sound Mixing 3/5 - Inception

Visual Effects 2.5/5 - I want to pick Harry Potter - but have to go with Inception

Writing (adapted) 3/5 - The Social Network

Writing (original) 3/5 - I go with Inception over King's Speech/Fighter - because it is fiction over non-fiction - has to be tougher to write something that didn't happen - OR DID IT???

Take it to the bank - these are (most likely not) the winners.

Oscar predictions

Here are my official Oscar predictions.

Best Picture - I've seen: Avatar, Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds and Up in the Air. I thought they were all very good, the "smart money" seems to be on either Avatar or Hurt Locker. I'll go for the small movie upset - Hurt Locker

Best Actor - I've only seen Hurt Locker, and Jeremy Renner was very good, but every other award has gone to Jeff Bridges this year, so I'll pick him.

Best Actress - Of these performances, I've only seen Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia. Again, the general consensus seems to bee Streep or Sandra Bullock for the Blind Side. I'll pick Sandra Bullock.

Supporting Actor - Have only seen Christoph Waltz from Inglorious Basterds. He was great, he's my pick.

Supporting Actress - From Up in the Air, I thought both Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick were great. Mo'Nique has won everything so far, so I'll go with her. She must have been impressive to be better than either of the women from Up in the Air!

Best Director - I'll go with the same vote as best picture - Kathryn Bigelow. Hollywood likes an upset of the little movie over the Giant.

On the writing, I'll go with Tarantino for Inglorious Basterds for original screenplay and The gang from Up in the Air for adapted screenplay.

Avatar will sweep the technical awards, Up for best animated picture