Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Some more comments on Mike's predictions

As I look at Mike's predictions for next year, I can't help but think how reasonable each of his game predictions are. But, I also can't help but feel that M can never win 7 games. "Why is this?", I asked myself. And, without much thinking, I came up with a theory. Since RR has arrived, M loses too many games they shouldn't.

The only way I could really check this (using numbers, and not doing too much work) is to look at the spread and see how many times M has lost when favored. That number is 8. Compare that to wins when M is the underdog, which is 3. That makes the argument for a 7-5 M team very difficult to swallow.

I'm not sure how to interpret this next part, but since RR's arrival, M has been favored 11 games, and has been the dog 12 (Delaware St. was off the board). That could mean that M is often overrated (which is the tradition, of course), or it could mean that M should have won half the games they've played the past two seasons. I don't know what it means.

Dave Birkett thinks UConn and MSU are must-wins this season (whatever that means). That may be true. But it is also true, and moreso, that based on RR's history at M, M needs to worry about Indiana and Illinois.


  1. First comment using the new phone. Seems very likely that I have overestimated the win total, but I' sticking with it for now.

  2. I think you should. It will be a good balance to my negativity.