Sugar Bowl Prediction

VTU 27
M 24

Sugar Bowl prediction based on historical data

M is 172-48-1 in all games I have attended (all data refers to game I have attended unless otherwise stated.)
M is 28-14 in games away from Michigan Stadium
M is 6-5 in Bowl games (4-1 in non Rose Bowls)
M is 45-9 when facing a team for the first time (I have not seen M play any of those 9 teams a second time)
M is 18-3 against schools from the original 13 colonies/states
M is 3-1 in the 10th game I have attended in a particular season
M is 38-8 with #16 as their starting QB (I missed this but DRob's start vs. Nebraska pushed #16 ahead of #7 for number of QB starts.)
M is 24-5 against teams with bird based nicknames/mascots
M is 5-0 against teams from the ACC
M is 6-3 when ranked 13 (0-1 in Bowls)
M is 6-1 when facing the 17th ranked team (2-0 vs. the ACC)
M is 4-1 in night games
This is the first time I will see M play indoors.


It's simple when you add it all up...

M 27
Virginia Tech 17

Fantasy Draft update

Back in August 10 of us attempted a college football fantasy draft. We got the idea from here. The ten of us drafted out the 120 teams. With just he bowl remaining I have the lead, but anything can happen.

I thought I'd break down the "best" and "worst" picks in each round.

Round 1: Boise St (Dad) - Florida State (Mason)
Round 2: Arkansas (Cory) - Akron (Kevin)
Round 3: Northern Illinois (Dad) - Troy (Cory)
Round 4: Houston (Melissa) - Maryland (Kara)
Round 5: Arkansas State (Kevin) - Army (Andy)
Round 6: Ohio (Laura) - Oregon State (Mike)
Round 7: Temple/Florida Intl (Dad/Jesse) - BC (Mason)
Round 8: Penn State (Mike) - Idaho/MTSU (Dad/Mason)
Round 9: Kansas State/La Tech (Kara/Laura) - Colorado (Kevin)
Round 10: Wyoming (Mason) - Indiana (Kara)
Round 11: Utah State (Laura) - Mississippi (Mason)
Round 12: La Lafayette (Jesse) - New Mexico (Mason)

sarcasMike NCAA playoff 2011

Everyone with an internet connection has an idea for a college football playoff - why not me.

16 teams - 11 conference champions + top 5 teams in the CFRC*
No same conference match-ups in the first round
Games on campus until final - have to win your conference to host a 1st round game
Only way an at-large team can host is if they are playing a lowered seeded at large team
Championship at Rose Bowl

Auto Qualifiers (rank)
LSU (1)
Oklahoma State (3)
Oregon (5)
Wisconsin (8)
TCU (19)
Clemson (21)
Southern Mississippi (23)
West Virginia (28)
Arkansas State (36)
Northern Illinois (41)
Louisiana Tech (44)

At Large Teams
Alabama (2)
Stanford (4)
Boise State (6)
Oklahoma (7)
Arkansas (9)

First teams out
USC (10)- they are on probation and couldn't compete anyway
Michigan (11)
South Carolina (12)
Kansas State (13)
Baylor (14)

I guess Oklahoma getting in would be the biggest complaint. If you want to swap out any of these teams go ahead. Since M would be the first team in, I say we go ahead and do that! We have to do some shuffling to avoid the first round match-up with Wisconsin.

So the seeded bracket would be:

16 La Tech
@ 1 LSU

7 Arkansas
@ 8 Wisconsin

12 So Miss
@ 5 Oregon

4 Stanford
@ 13 WVU

14 Ark St
@ 3 Ok State

6 Boise
@ 11 Clemson

9 Michigan
@ 10 TCU

2 Alabama
@ 15 NIU


*In a perfect world the at-large bids would be chosen by a selection committee, but until we get one of those, I'll use the CFRC.

Clemson takes the trophy Bowling

This is Clemson's 4th time as trophy holder and 2nd this season. This is the 4th time a team has won the trophy twice in the same season. Clemson will next take the field in the Orange Bowl on January 4th, probably against West Virginia. The last trophy holder to lose their Bowl game was Arkansas losing to Missouri in the 2008 Cotton Bowl.

BCmess and my Heisman votes

Why do only losses matter?

Oklahoma State beat 9 bowl (eligible) teams - Alabama 6
OSU has 7 wins over FBS teams with winning records - Alabama 3
OSU 5 wins over top 25 teams - Alabama 2

But Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State and their not "supposed" to be as good as Alabama so they get passed over.

When it occurs as expected, what if LSU loses to Alabama? They are 1-1 but Alabama gets the MNC and we'll never know what would have happened against Ok State.

My mythical Heisman ballot would be:
1: Robert Griffin III
2. Montee Ball
3. Tyrann Mathieu

Clemson - new trophy holder (again)

Full post coming tomorrow - Clemson has regained the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy.

M bowl possibilities

As I type this it looks like Houston is going to lose to Southern Mississippi. It would seem that this is good news for Michigan - it certainly isn't bad news.

This (pretty cool) BCS bowl predictor thinks the only two games that matter if Houston loses are LSU-Georgia and Iowa State-Kansas State.

Although this isn't the order the games are played - If LSU wins - M is in the Sugar Bowl. If LSU loses, Iowa State will have to have beaten KState for M to go to the BCS, in this case the Fiesta Bowl.

The game in Manhattan is currently at the half with KState leading 17-14.

Sugar Bowl possible opponents are TCU (if they beat UNLV - currently lead 21-6), WVU (if Boise St beats New Mexico) or the loser of in Bedlam if the upsets occur.

The opponent in the Fiesta Bowl would be the Bedlam winner.

Of course I have no idea if the website with this predictor knows what they're talking about...

Hoke Speak

In the verbiage of Brady Hoke, tOSU lost in the MAC Championship game tonight. Poor Buckeyes.

Conference Championship guesses

MAC - NIU over the Bobcats
PAC 12Oregon over UCLA
C-USA Houston over Southern Miss
SEC - LSU over Georgia
ACC (jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy on the line) Clemson over Virginia Tech
boneg - Wisconsin over MSU

Michigan to the Sugar Bowl