OSU prediction based on historical data

M is 185-51-1 in all games I have attended (all data is only for games I have attended unless otherwise specified)
M is 155-35-1 in games at Michigan Stadium
M is 122-37-1 in conference games
M is 9-6 against Ohio State
M is 34-16 after a loss
M is 8-10 after consecutive losses
M is 0-1-1 in their last game before conference reconfiguration
M is 3-0 after Thanksgiving
M is 5-5 when August Altese gets tickets as a former player (5-2 when he attends with a blood relative)

It's simple when you add it all together:

M 13 OSU 24

Ohio Prediction

Ohio Agricultural and Mechanical College  39
Catholepistemiad of Michigania  26

Cowboys are trophy holders

Oklahoma State knocked the Baylor juggernaut off the tracks this past Saturday with a 49-17 victory. More importantly they took possession of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy.

(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

This is only the second time the Cowboys have held the trophy. Back in 2008 they won it from Missouri, held it for a week against Baylor before losing it to Texas. They played for it two more times in the 2008 season, losing to Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Their all-time record in trophy games is 3-7.

Oklahoma State has a bye week this Saturday before facing their arch-rival Sooners 12/7 and then the trophy will most certainly go bowling.

The bowl game is likely the best chance for the j-s trophy to come back to the B1G. Maybe in the Fiesta Bowl against Wisconsin or Michigan State.

Baylor did have quite a run as trophy holder. Their 12 wins as trophy holder matched Tim Tebow's Florida team. You'd have to go back to the tainted USC team in 2004-05.

Iow Prediction

State University of Iowa  31
Catholepistemiad of Michigania  19

Iowa Prediction

Here are some fast facts:

• M hasn't won consecutive road games since 2010 (Notre Dame and Indiana) 
• Michigan hasn't won in Iowa since 2005
• Michigan has never lost 3 consecutive games in Iowa City 
• Did go 0-2-1 in 1984, 1985, 1988
• With a score, Michigan will set a new record for longest streak of not being shut out
• M last shut out at Iowa in 1984
• Michigan hasn't lost a road game since Brady Hoke's home winning streak was broken
• Craig Ross said on WTKA today that his friend who has picked each M game result correctly this season, predicted Iowa to win.
• Iowa win's on a late field goal (or maybe M misses one)

M 17 Iowa 19

Field Goals

Am I the only one who thought of this:

When this happened?




here's the M Radio call
At least M didn't have 13 men on the field including players split out...

Northwestern Prediction

In September, this was a trendy pick for the Legends division title. Now, not so much. I have no idea what to think.
It would seem Northwestern's defense might be a cure for Michigan's offensive offense. Of course, I had thought Nebraska's defense would do that. Going on the road, might be a good thing for Michigan - getting away from the booing fans to the friendly confines of Evanston.
This game might be the difference between 6-6 and 7-5.

Michigan 20 Northwestern 17

North Prediction

Northwestern University 32
Catholepestimiad of Michigania 23

Nebraska game leads to maniacal laughter

So many things were horrible in Michigan's loss to Nebraska yesterday it is tough to compile them all. Not surprisingly, checking twitter after the game did not make me feel better.

Hoke "I liked the play calling".
— angelique (@chengelis) November 10, 2013

Brady Hoke is satisfied with the play calling. So was Nebraska.
— Tony Gerdeman (@GerdOzone) November 10, 2013

Look away> NCAA stats updated - Michigan #123 (of 123) in Tackles for Loss Allowed - 9 per game
— MVictors (@MVictors) November 10, 2013

it does not get better

Hoke trying to get running back pass pro fixed...
— Mark Snyder (@Mark__Snyder) November 10, 2013

 

@mgoblog that tweet you sent about how we should've known Neb's D was bad after the kid scored at the spring game, it's not funny anymore
— Scott Thomas Genzink (@ScottGenzink) November 9, 2013

Nebraska prediction based on historical data

M is 185-50-1 in all games have attended (all data is from games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 155-34-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 122-36-1 in conference games
M is 1-0 against Nebraska
M is 28-14 when unranked
M is 134-20-1 against unranked opponents
M is 11-4 in the 8th game I've seen in a season
M is 1-3 in the head coach's 25th game (losses for Mo, LC,and RR win for Bo)
M is 52-10 when their starting QB wears the highest jersey number I have ever seen start at QB for Michigan
M is 34-15 after a loss
M is 5-1 when the opposing coach shares the first name with a former M coach
M is 17-8-1 when facing a Big 10/Big Ten/B1G team for the last time before conference expansion (assuming I do not go to Northwestern or Iowa)
M is 7-0 against teams with a nickname that is a job/profession/person doing a task

It's easy when you add it all together:

M 38 Nebraska 28

Michigan Hoke and Awry, pt 2

To continue the issue of Michigan home and away under Hoke....

If you compare end of season (or current for this year) rankings, you'll see M plays teams close to their ranking, as you'd expect.  Wins at home, loses on the road (thus the term "home field advantage").

I only see two games that clearly doesn't follow that formula since Hoke has arrived (using CFRC rankings):

-Road 2011 Iowa #44, M#11.
You may count PSU this year, as well (CFRC PSU #48, M #34), but as you get this far down in the rankings, the teams are more of a jumble.  By the end of the year, the rankings will likely be more similar and it will be more clear that this isn't a road upset. .

At home, M (CFRC #34) beating ND this year (CFRC #24) is the only time Hoke has beaten a team that is higher ranked than M.

So, only 2 (or 3) games in his 2 1/2 seasons truly go along with the theme we keep hearing.

I win.

Nebr Prediction

Catholepistemiad of Michigania 36
Nebraska 25

Big Trophy game tonight

Baylor has held the jimPossible-sarcasMike Trophy since defeating Kansas State last November.

• They've won those 11 games by an average score of  53-22. 
• Oklahoma comes in to Waco ranked #10 with a 7-1 record. 
• Oklahoma lost the trophy in the MNC game in January of 2009 and hasn't played for it since.
• An 11 win streak as trophy holder for Baylor (their first of those 11 games above was as the challenger) would be the longest since Florida ripped off 12 straight wins after beating Oklahoma in 2009

Michigan Hoke and Awry

jiMpossible requested an analysis for M home and road in the Hoke era.

jiMpossible:One thing I'm not sure about:  "Hoke's teams have been bad on the road."
Is this really true?  Isn't it that M has played tougher teams on the
road,
and has lost a few to teams that M is slightly better than (PSU this year,
Iowa a couple years ago,) .  Isn't that just home field advantage?  (If M
had lost to UConn, I wouldn't have been able to explain it any more than
explaining an  Akron loss).

Tell me if I'm wrong.

sarcasMike: jamie mac says they've been down double digits in 11 of 15 road games under Hoke-  that seems like a lot...

jiMpossible: That is a lot, but the final results are what matters.  M has been down a
lot of games, home and away; against better teams and worse.  I think the
home winning streak is putting more emphasis on the road record.  I need
someone (like you) to do a full analysis.  Thanks.

I put together a table of M deficits during Hoke's reign:

Season	Opponent	H/A/N	deficit	W/L	rank at time	final/current
2011	WMU	Home	7	W
2011	Notre Dame	Home	17	W
2011	EMU	Home	3	W
2011	SDSt	Home	NA	W
2011	Minnesota	Home	NA	W
2011	Northwestern	Away	10	W
2011	MSU	Away	14	L	23	11
2011	Purdue	Home	7	W
2011	Iowa	Away	15	L
2011	Illinois	Away	NA	W
2011	Nebraska	Home	NA	W	17	24
2011	OSU	Home	7	W
2011	VaTech	Neutral	3	W	17	21
2012	Alabama	Neutral	31	L	2	1
2012	Air Force	Home	NA	W
2012	Massachusetts	Home	NA	W
2012	Notre Dame	Away	10	L	11	4
2012	Purdue	Away	NA	W
2012	Illinois	Home	NA	W
2012	MSU	Home	1	W
2012	Nebraska	Away	14	L		25
2012	Minnesota	Away	NA	W
2012	Northwestern	Home	10	W	21	17
2012	Iowa	Home	NA	W
2012	OSU	Away	5	L	4	3
2012	South Carolina	Neutral	11	L	11	8
2013	CMU	Home	NA	W
2013	Notre Dame	Home	NA	W	14	24
2013	Akron	Home	3	W
2013	Connecticut	Away	14	W
2013	Minnesota	Home	NA	W
2013	Penn St	Away	11	L
2013	Indiana	Home	7	W
2013	MSU	Away	23	L	24	18
2013	Nebraska	Home
2013	Northwestern	Away
2013	Iowa	Away
2013	OSU	Home
2013	Bowl?	Neutral

M has faced double digit deficits in 12 of Hoke's 34 games. Two of those were at home, eight on the road and two at neutral sites.
Michigan's record in those games is 4-8 in those games (2-0 at home, 2-6 road, 0-2 neutral). It is worth noting that in in 2 of those losses (Bowl with South Carolina and at Penn State) M did come back to take the lead (even double digit lead vs. PSU - ARGGGGGGHHHH!) before losing.

M has trailed in 21 of these 34 games (12-9 in those games). 

I think falling behind by double digits in 35% of your games is not great. Winning a third of those makes it a little better (I would assume that is pretty - good; jiMpossible should follow up on that).

In a totally different era - Bo Schembechler's Wolverines fell behind by double digits 13 times in 21 years... (that is a somewhat educated guess) And I only credit them with one win and one tie in those games.

********UPDATE*****
Added opponents ranking into table. M has faced 10 teams ranked at time of kick off. These games are broken down to 3 at home, 4 on the road and 3 neutral. Only one team unranked at the game time ended up ranked that would add another road ranked team.

So M faced ranked teams in 3 of 18 homes games, 4-5 of 13 road games and 3 of 3 neutral site games. I think it would be safe to say from that data, their home schedule has not been as difficult as their road games.

Who is more stupid? PSU or the NCAA Statistics Staff

On the NCAA Football Statistics website, this year's Michigan-Penn State game is listed as having only one overtime.  Because there was a link on the webpage that said "Contact Us", I figured I could send a message and they'd look it up somewhere, and fix the mistake.  No problem.  But instead, I got this email response:

Mr. Sullivan:

Thank you for your email and interest in NCAA statistics.  The overtime report is generated from game files submitted by the host institution.  The game was submitted showing one overtime instead of four.  We have contacted the host institution several times to make them aware of this mistake and for them to submit a corrected file.  Unfortunately, the report cannot be updated until the updated file is submitted.

Thank you again.

Sincerely,
Michelle Forkner

NCAA Statistics Staff
NCAA