Monday, November 4, 2013

Michigan Hoke and Awry

jiMpossible requested an analysis for M home and road in the Hoke era.

jiMpossible:One thing I'm not sure about:  "Hoke's teams have been bad on the road."
Is this really true?  Isn't it that M has played tougher teams on the
road,
and has lost a few to teams that M is slightly better than (PSU this year,
Iowa a couple years ago,) .  Isn't that just home field advantage?  (If M
had lost to UConn, I wouldn't have been able to explain it any more than
explaining an  Akron loss).

Tell me if I'm wrong.
sarcasMike: jamie mac says they've been down double digits in 11 of 15 road games under Hoke-  that seems like a lot...
jiMpossible: That is a lot, but the final results are what matters.  M has been down a
lot of games, home and away; against better teams and worse.  I think the
home winning streak is putting more emphasis on the road record.  I need
someone (like you) to do a full analysis.  Thanks.

I put together a table of M deficits during Hoke's reign:

SeasonOpponentH/A/NdeficitW/Lrank at timefinal/current
2011
WMU
Home
7
W


2011
Notre Dame
Home
17
W


2011
EMU
Home
3
W


2011
SDSt
Home
NA
W


2011
Minnesota
Home
NA
W


2011
Northwestern
Away
10
W


2011
MSU
Away
14
L
23
11
2011
Purdue
Home
7
W


2011
Iowa
Away
15
L


2011
Illinois
Away
NA
W


2011
Nebraska
Home
NA
W
17
24
2011
OSU
Home
7
W


2011
VaTech
Neutral
3
W
17
21
2012
Alabama
Neutral
31
L
2
1
2012
Air Force
Home
NA
W


2012
Massachusetts
Home
NA
W


2012
Notre Dame
Away
10
L
11
4
2012
Purdue
Away
NA
W


2012
Illinois
Home
NA
W


2012
MSU
Home
1
W


2012
Nebraska
Away
14
L

25
2012
Minnesota
Away
NA
W


2012
Northwestern
Home
10
W
21
17
2012
Iowa
Home
NA
W


2012
OSU
Away
5
L
4
3
2012
South Carolina
Neutral
11
L
11
8
2013
CMU
Home
NA
W


2013
Notre Dame
Home
NA
W
14
24
2013
Akron
Home
3
W


2013
Connecticut
Away
14
W


2013
Minnesota
Home
NA
W


2013
Penn St
Away
11
L


2013
Indiana
Home
7
W


2013
MSU
Away
23
L
24
18
2013
Nebraska
Home




2013
Northwestern
Away




2013
Iowa
Away




2013
OSU
Home




2013
Bowl?
Neutral




M has faced double digit deficits in 12 of Hoke's 34 games. Two of those were at home, eight on the road and two at neutral sites.
Michigan's record in those games is 4-8 in those games (2-0 at home, 2-6 road, 0-2 neutral). It is worth noting that in in 2 of those losses (Bowl with South Carolina and at Penn State) M did come back to take the lead (even double digit lead vs. PSU - ARGGGGGGHHHH!) before losing.

M has trailed in 21 of these 34 games (12-9 in those games). 

I think falling behind by double digits in 35% of your games is not great. Winning a third of those makes it a little better (I would assume that is pretty - good; jiMpossible should follow up on that).

In a totally different era - Bo Schembechler's Wolverines fell behind by double digits 13 times in 21 years... (that is a somewhat educated guess) And I only credit them with one win and one tie in those games.

********UPDATE*****
Added opponents ranking into table. M has faced 10 teams ranked at time of kick off. These games are broken down to 3 at home, 4 on the road and 3 neutral. Only one team unranked at the game time ended up ranked that would add another road ranked team.

So M faced ranked teams in 3 of 18 homes games, 4-5 of 13 road games and 3 of 3 neutral site games. I think it would be safe to say from that data, their home schedule has not been as difficult as their road games.

2 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. Wait why did you remove your comment? I built a whole update based on your comment!

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