all-time win percentage

As I write this ND is tied with Rutgers (Go boneg).

Coming into today Michigan and Notre Dame are 1-2 in all-time win percentage.

M is 910-320-36 for 0.73301738

ND is 873-305-42 for 0.73278689

If ND wins this afternoon they will move to 0.73300573. Still behind M, so regardless of this outcome, M will go into tonight as the win percentage leader.

If M loses, however, they will fall behind ND with 0.73243883. 

Sports Bar Bowl prediction

If Gardner were playing I would have a decent amount of confidence that M would win. With Morris taking the snaps - I just don't know. I fear the offense will be something like the 2002 bowl against Tennessee, where for some reason they thought they could run the ball straight up the middle against dominant defensive linemen. And that team had a future Doak Walker winner at tailback, I don't think this team does.

I think it comes down to turnovers. If M wins the turnover battle they win the game.

M 17
KSU 14

A homer to the last…

Kansa Prediction

Kansas State Agricultural College 33
Catholepistemiad of Michigania 25

sarcasMike College Football Playoff 2013

I've done this a few times in the past so it seems like a good time to break it out again.

My playoff preference would be:

All conference champs
Use the BCS and the CFRC to select the at-large teams
Avoid conference match-ups in the first round
Home games until at least the semi finals
At-large teams play on the road when facing a conference champ
Some sort of bias for independents if they are ranked highly enough

Our 10 conference champs (with CFRC rank) are (after the jump)

Sooners Storm Bedlam for Trophy

The Oklahoma Sooners captured the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy with a 33-24 victory over their Bedlam rival Oklahoma State.

Photo credit: http://www.soonersports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=31000&ATCLID=209334370

They next face Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Oklahoma has a 7-11-1 record in trophy games.

date	Winner		Loser
1/2/1939	Tennessee	17	OU	0	Orange Bowl
9/28/1946	Army	21	OU	7
10/9/1965	Texas	19	OU	0
1/1/1968	OU	26	Tennessee	24	Orange Bowl
9/21/1968	Notre Dame	45	OU	21
9/29/1973	USC	7	OU	7
9/3/1992	OU	34	Texas Tech	9
9/12/1992	OU	61	Arkansas St	0
9/19/1992	USC	20	OU	10
9/28/1996	Tulsa	31	OU	24
11/1/1997	Nebraska	69	OU	7
11/7/1998	Texas A&M	29	OU	0
1/4/2005	USC	55	OU	19	Orange Bowl
11/22/2008	OU	65	Texas Tech	21
11/29/2008	OU	61	Oklahoma St	41
12/6/2008	OU	62	Missouri	21	BXII Championship
1/8/2009	Florida	24	OU	14	BCS Championship
11/7/2013	Baylor	41	OU	12
12/7/2013	OU	33	Oklahoma St	24

Thoughts on a great football Saturday

2 point conversion

• I had a bad feeling going into the play. Michigan has not been a good short yardage team all year. 
• I didn't like the formation they came out in. I really didn't like that they came back out in the same formation. John Beilein would never do that with the basketball team.
• After the fact, I think they needed to go for two. 
• OSU had a dominant running game - without a turnover M was unlikely to stop them
• M would be using their back up kicker for any field goals (his miss was saved by the timeout M called in the 3rd Q)
• Gardner was hobbled.
• As I said I didn't like the formation, I think it limited M. I think OSU had scouted the film enough to be able to guess what was coming.
• That being said, I think if Gardner had been able to get the pass off a split second earlier and Dileo could have reacted and made the catch right as he turned it would have been successful.
• When you're going for an all-or-nothing two point conversion play - I think you need to pull out all the stops. It either needs to be your best play that no one had been able to stop all year or something you've saved for just this case - that is un-scoutable. This play was neither.
• Biggest problem I have with the decision to go for two is Hoke saying he asked the seniors and they said "go for 2." Well of course they did. If there is a player on that sideline that didn't want to go for the win right there - they should be cut. Hoke and his staff are paid a ridiculous amount of money to make those decisions. The 22-23 year-olds on the sideline are paid in tuition and board allowances.
• Another way I've thought about the decision to go for 2 - what if the scenario was M was down by 3 and faced 4th and goal on the 3 with 32 seconds left. Do you take the field goal then? I feel like that decisions might have been to kick, but why is it any different?

Alabama -Auburn

• The extra second - I thought the clock in football was different than the clock in basketball in that the on field officials need to signal to stop the clock. It shouldn't be the split-second his foot came down out-of-bounds but the split-second the official started to signal to stop the clock.

If Alabama wins on this FG it would be an injustice - official has to signal to stop the clock - game should be over
— Mike Altese (@mpharmd98) December 1, 2013

boneg championship - Rose Bowl

• I was happy until I realized that their loss probably guaranteed MSU a spot in the Rose Bowl
• Twitter seems to think I should root for MSU because "Ohio (sic) is our real rival"
• I know about 2 people who are OSU fans - I know several MSU fans. I don't like it, but I'm not surprised when OSU is successful and better than M. I do NOT like it when MSU is.
• My best chance is a close OSU victory (preferably 7-3 with many turnovers) with an Auburn blow-out in the SEC championship game dropping OSU behind Auburn in the BCS.

Pics from Saturday

Megaphone

Augie

Urban

Script

Band

M

Captains

Brady

Jon

Trapped

Flyover

OSU prediction based on historical data

M is 185-51-1 in all games I have attended (all data is only for games I have attended unless otherwise specified)
M is 155-35-1 in games at Michigan Stadium
M is 122-37-1 in conference games
M is 9-6 against Ohio State
M is 34-16 after a loss
M is 8-10 after consecutive losses
M is 0-1-1 in their last game before conference reconfiguration
M is 3-0 after Thanksgiving
M is 5-5 when August Altese gets tickets as a former player (5-2 when he attends with a blood relative)

It's simple when you add it all together:

M 13 OSU 24

Ohio Prediction

Ohio Agricultural and Mechanical College  39
Catholepistemiad of Michigania  26

Cowboys are trophy holders

Oklahoma State knocked the Baylor juggernaut off the tracks this past Saturday with a 49-17 victory. More importantly they took possession of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy.

(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

This is only the second time the Cowboys have held the trophy. Back in 2008 they won it from Missouri, held it for a week against Baylor before losing it to Texas. They played for it two more times in the 2008 season, losing to Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Their all-time record in trophy games is 3-7.

Oklahoma State has a bye week this Saturday before facing their arch-rival Sooners 12/7 and then the trophy will most certainly go bowling.

The bowl game is likely the best chance for the j-s trophy to come back to the B1G. Maybe in the Fiesta Bowl against Wisconsin or Michigan State.

Baylor did have quite a run as trophy holder. Their 12 wins as trophy holder matched Tim Tebow's Florida team. You'd have to go back to the tainted USC team in 2004-05.

Iow Prediction

State University of Iowa  31
Catholepistemiad of Michigania  19

Iowa Prediction

Here are some fast facts:

• M hasn't won consecutive road games since 2010 (Notre Dame and Indiana) 
• Michigan hasn't won in Iowa since 2005
• Michigan has never lost 3 consecutive games in Iowa City 
• Did go 0-2-1 in 1984, 1985, 1988
• With a score, Michigan will set a new record for longest streak of not being shut out
• M last shut out at Iowa in 1984
• Michigan hasn't lost a road game since Brady Hoke's home winning streak was broken
• Craig Ross said on WTKA today that his friend who has picked each M game result correctly this season, predicted Iowa to win.
• Iowa win's on a late field goal (or maybe M misses one)

M 17 Iowa 19

Field Goals

Am I the only one who thought of this:

When this happened?




here's the M Radio call
At least M didn't have 13 men on the field including players split out...

Northwestern Prediction

In September, this was a trendy pick for the Legends division title. Now, not so much. I have no idea what to think.
It would seem Northwestern's defense might be a cure for Michigan's offensive offense. Of course, I had thought Nebraska's defense would do that. Going on the road, might be a good thing for Michigan - getting away from the booing fans to the friendly confines of Evanston.
This game might be the difference between 6-6 and 7-5.

Michigan 20 Northwestern 17

North Prediction

Northwestern University 32
Catholepestimiad of Michigania 23

Nebraska game leads to maniacal laughter

So many things were horrible in Michigan's loss to Nebraska yesterday it is tough to compile them all. Not surprisingly, checking twitter after the game did not make me feel better.

Hoke "I liked the play calling".
— angelique (@chengelis) November 10, 2013

Brady Hoke is satisfied with the play calling. So was Nebraska.
— Tony Gerdeman (@GerdOzone) November 10, 2013

Look away> NCAA stats updated - Michigan #123 (of 123) in Tackles for Loss Allowed - 9 per game
— MVictors (@MVictors) November 10, 2013

it does not get better

Hoke trying to get running back pass pro fixed...
— Mark Snyder (@Mark__Snyder) November 10, 2013

 

@mgoblog that tweet you sent about how we should've known Neb's D was bad after the kid scored at the spring game, it's not funny anymore
— Scott Thomas Genzink (@ScottGenzink) November 9, 2013

Nebraska prediction based on historical data

M is 185-50-1 in all games have attended (all data is from games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 155-34-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 122-36-1 in conference games
M is 1-0 against Nebraska
M is 28-14 when unranked
M is 134-20-1 against unranked opponents
M is 11-4 in the 8th game I've seen in a season
M is 1-3 in the head coach's 25th game (losses for Mo, LC,and RR win for Bo)
M is 52-10 when their starting QB wears the highest jersey number I have ever seen start at QB for Michigan
M is 34-15 after a loss
M is 5-1 when the opposing coach shares the first name with a former M coach
M is 17-8-1 when facing a Big 10/Big Ten/B1G team for the last time before conference expansion (assuming I do not go to Northwestern or Iowa)
M is 7-0 against teams with a nickname that is a job/profession/person doing a task

It's easy when you add it all together:

M 38 Nebraska 28

Michigan Hoke and Awry, pt 2

To continue the issue of Michigan home and away under Hoke....

If you compare end of season (or current for this year) rankings, you'll see M plays teams close to their ranking, as you'd expect.  Wins at home, loses on the road (thus the term "home field advantage").

I only see two games that clearly doesn't follow that formula since Hoke has arrived (using CFRC rankings):

-Road 2011 Iowa #44, M#11.
You may count PSU this year, as well (CFRC PSU #48, M #34), but as you get this far down in the rankings, the teams are more of a jumble.  By the end of the year, the rankings will likely be more similar and it will be more clear that this isn't a road upset. .

At home, M (CFRC #34) beating ND this year (CFRC #24) is the only time Hoke has beaten a team that is higher ranked than M.

So, only 2 (or 3) games in his 2 1/2 seasons truly go along with the theme we keep hearing.

I win.

Nebr Prediction

Catholepistemiad of Michigania 36
Nebraska 25

Big Trophy game tonight

Baylor has held the jimPossible-sarcasMike Trophy since defeating Kansas State last November.

• They've won those 11 games by an average score of  53-22. 
• Oklahoma comes in to Waco ranked #10 with a 7-1 record. 
• Oklahoma lost the trophy in the MNC game in January of 2009 and hasn't played for it since.
• An 11 win streak as trophy holder for Baylor (their first of those 11 games above was as the challenger) would be the longest since Florida ripped off 12 straight wins after beating Oklahoma in 2009

Michigan Hoke and Awry

jiMpossible requested an analysis for M home and road in the Hoke era.

jiMpossible:One thing I'm not sure about:  "Hoke's teams have been bad on the road."
Is this really true?  Isn't it that M has played tougher teams on the
road,
and has lost a few to teams that M is slightly better than (PSU this year,
Iowa a couple years ago,) .  Isn't that just home field advantage?  (If M
had lost to UConn, I wouldn't have been able to explain it any more than
explaining an  Akron loss).

Tell me if I'm wrong.

sarcasMike: jamie mac says they've been down double digits in 11 of 15 road games under Hoke-  that seems like a lot...

jiMpossible: That is a lot, but the final results are what matters.  M has been down a
lot of games, home and away; against better teams and worse.  I think the
home winning streak is putting more emphasis on the road record.  I need
someone (like you) to do a full analysis.  Thanks.

I put together a table of M deficits during Hoke's reign:

Season	Opponent	H/A/N	deficit	W/L	rank at time	final/current
2011	WMU	Home	7	W
2011	Notre Dame	Home	17	W
2011	EMU	Home	3	W
2011	SDSt	Home	NA	W
2011	Minnesota	Home	NA	W
2011	Northwestern	Away	10	W
2011	MSU	Away	14	L	23	11
2011	Purdue	Home	7	W
2011	Iowa	Away	15	L
2011	Illinois	Away	NA	W
2011	Nebraska	Home	NA	W	17	24
2011	OSU	Home	7	W
2011	VaTech	Neutral	3	W	17	21
2012	Alabama	Neutral	31	L	2	1
2012	Air Force	Home	NA	W
2012	Massachusetts	Home	NA	W
2012	Notre Dame	Away	10	L	11	4
2012	Purdue	Away	NA	W
2012	Illinois	Home	NA	W
2012	MSU	Home	1	W
2012	Nebraska	Away	14	L		25
2012	Minnesota	Away	NA	W
2012	Northwestern	Home	10	W	21	17
2012	Iowa	Home	NA	W
2012	OSU	Away	5	L	4	3
2012	South Carolina	Neutral	11	L	11	8
2013	CMU	Home	NA	W
2013	Notre Dame	Home	NA	W	14	24
2013	Akron	Home	3	W
2013	Connecticut	Away	14	W
2013	Minnesota	Home	NA	W
2013	Penn St	Away	11	L
2013	Indiana	Home	7	W
2013	MSU	Away	23	L	24	18
2013	Nebraska	Home
2013	Northwestern	Away
2013	Iowa	Away
2013	OSU	Home
2013	Bowl?	Neutral

M has faced double digit deficits in 12 of Hoke's 34 games. Two of those were at home, eight on the road and two at neutral sites.
Michigan's record in those games is 4-8 in those games (2-0 at home, 2-6 road, 0-2 neutral). It is worth noting that in in 2 of those losses (Bowl with South Carolina and at Penn State) M did come back to take the lead (even double digit lead vs. PSU - ARGGGGGGHHHH!) before losing.

M has trailed in 21 of these 34 games (12-9 in those games). 

I think falling behind by double digits in 35% of your games is not great. Winning a third of those makes it a little better (I would assume that is pretty - good; jiMpossible should follow up on that).

In a totally different era - Bo Schembechler's Wolverines fell behind by double digits 13 times in 21 years... (that is a somewhat educated guess) And I only credit them with one win and one tie in those games.

********UPDATE*****
Added opponents ranking into table. M has faced 10 teams ranked at time of kick off. These games are broken down to 3 at home, 4 on the road and 3 neutral. Only one team unranked at the game time ended up ranked that would add another road ranked team.

So M faced ranked teams in 3 of 18 homes games, 4-5 of 13 road games and 3 of 3 neutral site games. I think it would be safe to say from that data, their home schedule has not been as difficult as their road games.

Who is more stupid? PSU or the NCAA Statistics Staff

On the NCAA Football Statistics website, this year's Michigan-Penn State game is listed as having only one overtime.  Because there was a link on the webpage that said "Contact Us", I figured I could send a message and they'd look it up somewhere, and fix the mistake.  No problem.  But instead, I got this email response:

Mr. Sullivan:

Thank you for your email and interest in NCAA statistics.  The overtime report is generated from game files submitted by the host institution.  The game was submitted showing one overtime instead of four.  We have contacted the host institution several times to make them aware of this mistake and for them to submit a corrected file.  Unfortunately, the report cannot be updated until the updated file is submitted.

Thank you again.

Sincerely,
Michelle Forkner

NCAA Statistics Staff
NCAA

Michig Prediction

Agricultural College of the State of Michigan 29
Catholepistemiad of Michigania 19

MSU prediction based on historical data

M is 185-49-1 in all games have attended (all data is from games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 30-15 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 122-35-1 in conference games
M is 76-23-1 on natural surface
M is 16-6 against Michigan State (MSU is 7-16 in all games I have seen them play)
M is 3-1 when ranked 23
M is 1-0 against teams ranked 24
M is 159-32-1 when ranked higher than their opponent
M is 17-5 in the 7th game I've seen in a season
M is 3-1 in the head coach's 24th game (Wins for Mo, LC,and RR loss for Bo)
M is 3-1 when facing an opposing coach for the 7th time
M is 52-9 when their starting QB wears the highest jersey number I have ever seen start at QB for Michigan
M is 0-1 in games that (ultimately or likely) determine the Legends division championship
M is 3-2 when Al Borges has been out-matched by the opposing defensive coordinator

It's easy when you add it all together:

M 21 MSU 16

India Prediction

Catholepistemiad of Michigania 42
State Seminary 27

Indiana Prediction based on historical data

M is 184-49-1 in all games have attended (all data is from games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 154-34-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 121-35-1 in conference games
M is 13-0 against Indiana
M is 27-14 when unranked
M is 133-20-1 against unranked opponents
M is 19-9 when unranked facing an unranked opponent (7 losses in RR era)
M is 5-2 when facing teams for the 14th time
M is 19-7-1 in the 6th game I've seen in a season
M is 2-2 in the head coach's 23rd game (Wins for Mo and LC, losses for Bo and RR)
M is 10-2 against teams with head coaches that share the last name with the main character playing opposite Tom Hanks in a Tom Hanks movie (volleyballs count)

It's easy when you add it all together:

M 35 Indiana 28

Mid-October Trophy Update

I haven't posted for a while about the status of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy. Baylor has been on quite a dominant run since taking it from Kansas State last November.

Baylor has scored 476 points in those 8 games - almost 60 points per game! Tomorrow they head to Manhattan to face the Wildcats they took the trophy from in the first place. Baylor is a 17 point favorite in what is expected to be another high scoring game. The over/under is around 74. This seems low, Baylor's lowest point total this season is 69 points.

Stranger things have happened, but I would expect the trophy to be making a return trip to Waco.

Penn State prediction based on pure speculation

I don't think I've watched one snap of a Penn State game this season. I don't think I've missed seeing one for Michigan.

In January, I predicted this a loss for Michigan. Although M is undefeated, they haven't been particularly impressive thus far. I think it comes down to turnovers and Borges. If M loses the turnover battle - they'll lose. If Borges has a "no idea what I'm doing" game plan - see MSU 2011, Iowa 2011, Notre Dame 2012; M will lose.

But since they've managed to do just enough thus far...

M 24
Penn St 21

Penn Prediction

Catholepistemiad of Michigania 30
Agricultural College of Pennsylvania 24

Minne Prediction

Catholepistemiad of Michigania 36
University of Minnesota 18

Minnesota prediction based on historical data

M is 183-49-1 in all games have attended (all data is from games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 153-34-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 120-35-1 in conference games
M is 13-2 against Minnesota
M is 8-0 when ranked #19
M is 132-20-1 against unranked opponents
M is 2-0 when facing teams for the 16th time
M is 20-9 in the 5th game I've seen in a season
M is 23-4 against teams with rodent/weasel mascots
M is 30-7 on their homecoming (32-7 on all homecomings)
M is 21-3 against teams coached by men whose last name is a common verb

It's easy when you add it all together:

M 37 Minnesota 21

Uke Prediction

Catholepistemiad of Michigania 38
Storrs Agricultural School 17

UConn prediction based on historical data

M is 182-49-1 in all games I have attended (data is ONLY for games I have attended unless otherwise mentioned)

M is 62-14 in non-conference games

M is 29-15 away from Michigan Stadium

M is 155-35-1 when ranked

M is 5-1 when ranked #15

M is 131-20-1 against unranked opponents

M is 2-0 with #98 as starting QB

M is 75-23-1 on natural surface

M is 1-0 when facing a team currently in a different conference than the previous time they played (Big 10 – Big Ten – B1G not considered different conferences for this purpose)

M is 4-2 when facing a head coach coaching his second team

M is 5-1 playing before crowds of less than 50,000

M is 23-5 in the 4^th game of the season

M is 1-0 vs. Connecticut

M is 3-1 against teams with dog-based nicknames

M is 16-1 when facing a conference for the first time (only loss is to the Southern Conference – App State)

It's easy when you add it all together

M 41

U Conn 17