Sugar Bowl Prediction

VTU 27
M 24

Sugar Bowl prediction based on historical data

M is 172-48-1 in all games I have attended (all data refers to game I have attended unless otherwise stated.)
M is 28-14 in games away from Michigan Stadium
M is 6-5 in Bowl games (4-1 in non Rose Bowls)
M is 45-9 when facing a team for the first time (I have not seen M play any of those 9 teams a second time)
M is 18-3 against schools from the original 13 colonies/states
M is 3-1 in the 10th game I have attended in a particular season
M is 38-8 with #16 as their starting QB (I missed this but DRob's start vs. Nebraska pushed #16 ahead of #7 for number of QB starts.)
M is 24-5 against teams with bird based nicknames/mascots
M is 5-0 against teams from the ACC
M is 6-3 when ranked 13 (0-1 in Bowls)
M is 6-1 when facing the 17th ranked team (2-0 vs. the ACC)
M is 4-1 in night games
This is the first time I will see M play indoors.


It's simple when you add it all up...

M 27
Virginia Tech 17

Fantasy Draft update

Back in August 10 of us attempted a college football fantasy draft. We got the idea from here. The ten of us drafted out the 120 teams. With just he bowl remaining I have the lead, but anything can happen.

I thought I'd break down the "best" and "worst" picks in each round.

Round 1: Boise St (Dad) - Florida State (Mason)
Round 2: Arkansas (Cory) - Akron (Kevin)
Round 3: Northern Illinois (Dad) - Troy (Cory)
Round 4: Houston (Melissa) - Maryland (Kara)
Round 5: Arkansas State (Kevin) - Army (Andy)
Round 6: Ohio (Laura) - Oregon State (Mike)
Round 7: Temple/Florida Intl (Dad/Jesse) - BC (Mason)
Round 8: Penn State (Mike) - Idaho/MTSU (Dad/Mason)
Round 9: Kansas State/La Tech (Kara/Laura) - Colorado (Kevin)
Round 10: Wyoming (Mason) - Indiana (Kara)
Round 11: Utah State (Laura) - Mississippi (Mason)
Round 12: La Lafayette (Jesse) - New Mexico (Mason)

sarcasMike NCAA playoff 2011

Everyone with an internet connection has an idea for a college football playoff - why not me.

16 teams - 11 conference champions + top 5 teams in the CFRC*
No same conference match-ups in the first round
Games on campus until final - have to win your conference to host a 1st round game
Only way an at-large team can host is if they are playing a lowered seeded at large team
Championship at Rose Bowl

Auto Qualifiers (rank)
LSU (1)
Oklahoma State (3)
Oregon (5)
Wisconsin (8)
TCU (19)
Clemson (21)
Southern Mississippi (23)
West Virginia (28)
Arkansas State (36)
Northern Illinois (41)
Louisiana Tech (44)

At Large Teams
Alabama (2)
Stanford (4)
Boise State (6)
Oklahoma (7)
Arkansas (9)

First teams out
USC (10)- they are on probation and couldn't compete anyway
Michigan (11)
South Carolina (12)
Kansas State (13)
Baylor (14)

I guess Oklahoma getting in would be the biggest complaint. If you want to swap out any of these teams go ahead. Since M would be the first team in, I say we go ahead and do that! We have to do some shuffling to avoid the first round match-up with Wisconsin.

So the seeded bracket would be:

16 La Tech
@ 1 LSU

7 Arkansas
@ 8 Wisconsin

12 So Miss
@ 5 Oregon

4 Stanford
@ 13 WVU

14 Ark St
@ 3 Ok State

6 Boise
@ 11 Clemson

9 Michigan
@ 10 TCU

2 Alabama
@ 15 NIU


*In a perfect world the at-large bids would be chosen by a selection committee, but until we get one of those, I'll use the CFRC.

Clemson takes the trophy Bowling

This is Clemson's 4th time as trophy holder and 2nd this season. This is the 4th time a team has won the trophy twice in the same season. Clemson will next take the field in the Orange Bowl on January 4th, probably against West Virginia. The last trophy holder to lose their Bowl game was Arkansas losing to Missouri in the 2008 Cotton Bowl.

BCmess and my Heisman votes

Why do only losses matter?

Oklahoma State beat 9 bowl (eligible) teams - Alabama 6
OSU has 7 wins over FBS teams with winning records - Alabama 3
OSU 5 wins over top 25 teams - Alabama 2

But Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State and their not "supposed" to be as good as Alabama so they get passed over.

When it occurs as expected, what if LSU loses to Alabama? They are 1-1 but Alabama gets the MNC and we'll never know what would have happened against Ok State.

My mythical Heisman ballot would be:
1: Robert Griffin III
2. Montee Ball
3. Tyrann Mathieu

Clemson - new trophy holder (again)

Full post coming tomorrow - Clemson has regained the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy.

M bowl possibilities

As I type this it looks like Houston is going to lose to Southern Mississippi. It would seem that this is good news for Michigan - it certainly isn't bad news.

This (pretty cool) BCS bowl predictor thinks the only two games that matter if Houston loses are LSU-Georgia and Iowa State-Kansas State.

Although this isn't the order the games are played - If LSU wins - M is in the Sugar Bowl. If LSU loses, Iowa State will have to have beaten KState for M to go to the BCS, in this case the Fiesta Bowl.

The game in Manhattan is currently at the half with KState leading 17-14.

Sugar Bowl possible opponents are TCU (if they beat UNLV - currently lead 21-6), WVU (if Boise St beats New Mexico) or the loser of in Bedlam if the upsets occur.

The opponent in the Fiesta Bowl would be the Bedlam winner.

Of course I have no idea if the website with this predictor knows what they're talking about...

Hoke Speak

In the verbiage of Brady Hoke, tOSU lost in the MAC Championship game tonight. Poor Buckeyes.

Conference Championship guesses

MAC - NIU over the Bobcats
PAC 12Oregon over UCLA
C-USA Houston over Southern Miss
SEC - LSU over Georgia
ACC (jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy on the line) Clemson over Virginia Tech
boneg - Wisconsin over MSU

Michigan to the Sugar Bowl

boneg championship game

These two things do not go together...

Me trying to sell my tickets for $90 each



People being offered $75 to be seat fillers...

Maybe I'll go and see if I can become a last minute seat filler. The ponec made a much better decision - having their championship game on campus in Oregon.

M vs OSU prediction based on historical data

M is 171-48-1 in all games I have attended (all data refers to games I have attended unless specifically mentioned)
M is 133-34-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 115-35-1 in conference games
M is 5-1 when ranked 17th (only loss to OSU in 2005)
M is 122-20-1 against unranked opponents
M is 37-8 with #16 as starting QB
M is 8-6 against OSU (6 losses ties OSU with MSU for most victories over M)
M is 4-5 in the 9th game I have seen them play in a season
M is 4-0 in their head coaches 9th game
M is 2-1 when facing a team for the 15th time
M is 0-1 when trying to stop a 3 game losing streak against an opponent
M is 25-9-1 in the final home game of the season
M is 20-5 when facing the 4th head coach for a particular team
M is 1-0 when facing a team that the next time M plays that team will be coached by Urban Meyer

It's easy when you add it all up..

M 24 - OSU 21

Ohio State Prediction

Michigan 33
Ohio State 13

9-2

Huh...

• I thought my 8-4 July prediction was pretty optimistic. Turns out I was a glass half empty guy.
• The win does mean Michigan has beaten each conference opponent the first time I've seen them play. Nebraska joins Indiana as the only conference opponents I haven't seen beat Michigan.
• Denard still seems tentative in his runs. I was glad to see him finally take the open field scramble rather than force a pass. He still seems to be making too many cuts rather than just running when he gets to open field.
• Toussaint is good - sometimes he thinks he's Barry Sanders and turns a 1 yard loss into a 4 yard loss, but other than that - he has been stellar.
• I'm happy for Martaveous Odoms. He has made a huge difference as a kick returner and he's becoming part of the passing game again. He was the ONLY offensive weapon on the 2008 team, he deserves to go out successfully.
• Blake Countess is the best corner M has had in years. Not sure what the coaches thought when he was behind Woolfolk, Floyd and Avery at the beginning of the year. And he's only a freshman.
• The defense will greatly miss Martin and Van Bergen next year. They are very good. I would be surprised if they're not playing on Sundays next year.
• The power outage was weird. The underground men's room only had the emergency lights on. The scoreboards were out until just before the half. I assume jiMpossible's fan thingy would have worked - he would have been a star one eyed king amongst the blind.

Michigan has their best chance to beat OSU in quite a while - not sure when M was last favored in the game.

Little Hokey Foo Foo

Nebraska Prediction Based On Trophy

m 26, n 23

M vs Nebraska prediction based on historical data

M is 170-48-1 in all games I have attended
M is 132-34-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 114-35-1 in conference games
M is 10-0 when facing a conference team for the first time
M is 5-1 when the opposing coach shares the first name of a former M coach*
M is 6-0 when ranked #20 (1-0 against ranked opponents when ranked #20)
M is 5-1 when opponent is ranked #17
M is 48-28 against ranked opponents (6 straight losses)
M is 20-13 when facing a higher ranked team
M is 48-19-1 against teams with "humanish" mascots
M is 36-8 with #16 as their starting QB
M is 10-4 in the 8th game I have seen them play in a particular season (3 straight losses)

It's easy when you add it all up

M 24 - Nebraska 28

* that I have seen - i.e. Bo, Gary, Lloyd or Rich

Virginia Tech - New Trophy Holder

Sorry for the late post... I thought Georgia Tech held on to beat the Hokies. For Virginia Tech this is their first time winning College Football's Greatest Trophy. They are the first first-timer since Kentucky last season. And the 100th team to win the trophy overall!

Their win will likely keep the trophy out of the SEC - at least until bowl season. The Hokies have 2 games remaining on their schedule - this Thursday they travel to UNC then they host Virginia Saturday after Thanksgiving. VaTech currently leads the Coastal division of the ACC. Clemson has clinched the Atlantic division, the Tigers would be the opponent in Charlotte.

The ACC champ will likely go to the Orange Bowl against a BCS at-large team. If Michigan wins their final 2 games - they may receive an at-large bid...

(AP Photo/John Bazemore *)



*Kinda

Michigan vs. Illinois predictions

Illinois mostly bottles up Michigan's offense except for 2 big plays
Only 1 turnover for Michigan
Robinson less than 50% completions but 2 TDs (see above)
Michigan's D has trouble with Scheelhaase - but wins the turnover battle

Michigan 23 Illinois 21

Illinois Prediction Based On...A Lack Of Confidence!

Illinois 25, Michigan 24

Going for 2 or not when down 9

Both BrianGoBlog and BWchriS commented about Michigan's decision to kick the PAT rather than go for 2 when they scored what turned out to be their final touchdown.

MGoBlog thinks M made the wrong decision and BWS disagrees.

I tend to agree that kicking the PAT was correct.

Time left: Michigan scored with 7:53 remaining, making the score 24-15. There had been 18 possessions to that point. Meaning the average possession to that point had been less than 3 minutes. M had all 3 timeouts (I think M used their first timeout on Iowa's next punt).

Keeping it at 2 possessions instead of 3: A missed 2 point conversion means M needs to score 2 times in under 8 minutes, with Iowa running clock - that's not enough time to do so without an onside kick. I know a missed 2 point conversion with no time left means you lose - I get it, but I'd rather start with a more doable option stop and score - rather than stop - score - get onside kick - score.

What if Iowa scores? 27-15 - takes a last second field goal to put us in OT out of the equation. Or forces M to go for a TD on a 4th and long goal rather than take a FG now and scramble for the tying TD. 31-15 - means M needs 2 TDs and 2 2-point conversions... 27-16 and 31-16 are much better options.

Momentum and emotion: A failed 2 point conversion would have to demoralize the team - knowing they scored but still need to score 2 more times...

BWS wanted to something like the Advance NFL stats to show:

WP(extra point) vs. WP(2-pt make)*.4 + WP(2-pt miss)*.6

But isn't really able to pull it off. Based on the comments I've seen on his post and in mgoblog - I am definitely in the minority, but that doesn't change my opinion that M made the right choice.

Should M have gone for 2 down 9?
	Yes
	No
pollcode.com free polls

M is who we thought they were - kinda

Michigan is 7-2, back in July I had predicted at this point they would be 6-3. Why don't I feel better about their record than I do?

Problems
The offense in general - compare the numbers to last year after 9 games (it is worth noting that the 3-OT games against Illinois is included in the 2010 stats)

Offense	2010	2011
Points	350	294
First downs	218	197
Rushing yards	2461	2090
ypc	6.2	5.6
passing yards	2362	1763
y/a	9.2	8.4
Comp %	65.2	53.1
Interceptions	10	13

Decrease of 1000 yards of total offense
Loss of over half a yard per play
Way too many interceptions (10 is pretty high btw)

But beyond the numbers, nothing seems to work well consistently in the offense. Last year there were several "go-to" plays - from the standard Denard sweep; to some version of the read option (not that the truly optioned much); the play action hash pass pass; bubble screens.
What have been Michigan's most successful plays this year? Toss it up to Hemingway? They seem to have a collection of plays, not an offense.

Denard is obviosly uncomfortable in this offense. The coaches and DRob himself may tell us differently, but I don't believe them. He's been told the offense needs a drop back passer, so that's what he wants to be - to his and the teams detriment. If it isn't there - quit forcing it and run. He's not punishing the defenses for cheating tight on the receivers. If there's no one open - then he MUST be. How many times was he standing flat footed looking to force a pass to his 2nd or 3rd read? RUN!!!

The Devin package seems to have diminishing returns. There really hasn't been too much success from any of the alignments. And if they do have something new - stop showing it against Minnesota and Purdue and save it for a real opponent...

What's wrong with Hagerup? He was a great punter this year. The suspension really seems to have caused him to take a step back. Was it for PEDs? A huge punt played a role in the LSU-Alabama match-of-the-millenium, Michigan needs to get better there.

Where was Thomas Gordon? Against a power runningback like Coker, M benches one of its leading tacklers and substitutes Woolfolk. Woolfolk was a failure at corner and is not a good tackler. And Gordon doesn;t even get in for a snap?

How many times does Desmond Morgan have to get blown up before he comes out of the lineup? I prefer Hawthorne to Morgan, not sure what the coaches see.

How does the 4th down play not include a run pass option? Denard running >>>> Denard passing, Denard passing with the threat of running >>>>> Denard passing from the pocket.

I had Michigan winning 2 of their final 3 games, I would be surprised (pleasantly) if this happens.

Boneg Ladder

With a couple more 'upsets', the current Boneg Ladder now looks like this:

PSU

(everyone except PSU and Indiana)

Indiana

Using this as a predictor, M will go 2-1 the rest of the season. 

Take that Columbus Dispatch

It has been 1448 days since OSU has beaten Michigan in the Blood Battle

Michigan vs. Iowa prediction

I haven't seen much Hawkeye football this season. We watched the end of regulation and overtime in their match-up with Iowa St. Iowa was certainly not very impressive. Last week they found a way to lose to a horrible Minnesota team. So it would seem I should have some confidence in a Michigan victory. But for some reason I'm not.
Back in July I picked this as a Michigan loss. Michigan has been better defensively than I expected. But the decline in Denard's play still scares me. I see another 2-3 interception game, that will be tough for Michigan to overcome.

Michigan 10 Iowa 12

I'm just saying.

Iowa Prediction Base On Fortune Cookie

m32, i24

Boneg Ladder

It was only a matter of time until there was a jumble in the Boneg Ladder.  When MSU lost to Nebraska, that created an MSU-Wis-Neb jumble.  8 hours later, OSU was added to that jumble when they beat Wisconsin.  Because none of the teams in that jumble have lost to any other teams, they sit on the top rung with PSU.

PSU has 5 wins, but the wins have been against 5 of the bottom 6 teams (per Boneg Ladder).  All three of the remaining games are against top rung Boneg Ladder teams.

If someone can upset MSU, it really looks to be a Boneg Championship game with 2 2-loss teams. Unfortunately, MSU's remaining 4 games are against teams on the bottom 4 rungs of the Boneg Ladder.

So, here's this week's Ladder:

PSU     MSU-Wis-Neb-OSU

MI

Purdue

MN     IL

Iowa

Northwestern

IN

Using the Boneg Ladder to predict the games, M will go 2-2 from this point, losing to Neb and OSU.

Using the Boneg Ladder to predict the rest of the league, MSU will not lose again earning the slot as the Michigan division representative in the Bone Championship game.  In the Indiana division, it would be a three way tie between PSU, Wisconsin and OSU, each with 2 losses.  PSU would be eliminated because they would have lost to both Wis and OSU.  That would leave OSU as the division champ due to head-to-head.

Georgia Tech - New Trophy holder

Congratulations to the Rambling Wreck from Georgia Tech. Their 31-17 victory over Clemson ended the Tigers 6 week run with college football's greatest trophy.




This is the Yellow Jackets 3rd time winning the trophy. They beat Auburn on October 14, 1944 - you may remember that Auburn did not field a varsity team in 1943 because of the war, so the trophy sat dormant for a season. Tech won twice before losing to Duke in early November.

They waited 20+ years to take the trophy again. defeating Tennessee in October of 1966. They were more successful in their second defense of the trophy, rattling off 5 straight wins before losing to arch-rival Georgia on the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

Tech has 3 regular season games remaining. Following their bye week, they close out hosting Virginia Tech, traveling to Duke and the annual match-up with Georgia. If they win out, they will likely win the Coastal division in the ACC (not sure of the tie-breaker scenario if 3 teams have 2 losses) and potentially take on Clemson again for the ACC title.

I'm going to predict the trophy will be going back to Blacksburg in 2 weeks.

M vs. Purdue prediction based on historical data

M is 169-48-1 in all games I have attended
M is 141-34-1 in games at Michigan Stadium
M is 28-7 on their homecoming

It's easy when you add it all up

M 21 Purdue 17

M vs Purdue Prediction Based On......nothing

Michigan 33, Purdue 15

Big Ten Ladder

The Ladder is back.  As you may know, each team is on a higher rung than teams they have beaten, and on lower rungs than teams they've lost to.  There have not yet been situations that cause circles/ pileups (a beats b, b beats c, c beats a, for example).  One upset could do that.

There are actually two ways to do the ladder.  One using the undefeated teams on the top rung and lining up teams below.  The other is using the winless teams and lining up the teams above.  I'm going with the first one.

The ladder as of today:

PSU - MSU
Iowa - Purdue - Wisconsin - Michigan
Nebraska
Minnesota - OSU
Illinois
Indiana - Northwestern

Using this as a predictor, M will go 4-1 from here on out (losing to Iowa on the road).  I'd take that.

Uniforms

I don't feel like saying anything about the game, but I do have to comment on the uniforms.

MSUs Nike costumes were a bit offensive in their design, but they were worlds better than M's Faux-Throw road unis.  Seriously, who thought this was a good idea?

And though I like the numbers on the helmets, is there any way to make the color of the numbers the same maize as on the rest of the helmets or on the jerseys?

M vs MSU prediction

Doesn't look like I'm going to East Lansing this weekend ($200 per ticket???) so there will be no prediction based on games I've attended. So let's go with something along the lines of games not attended.

M is 721-261-35 in games I have not attended
M is 52-26-5 in against MSU games I have not attended

Michigan 23
MSU 17

MSU Prediction Based On Paris Metro

msu 28 m 20

Michigan at Midpoint

As jiMpossible pointed out, somehow he has become the more confident one. Back in July I predicted M would finish 8-4, which seemed pretty optimistic.

I had M at 4-2 at this point, with losses against ND and Northwestern. Obviously M pulled out victories in both games. Looking forward. I had M losing to Iowa and Nebraska in the second half. While I wouldn't say M will definitely beat the Hawkeyes, it would seem they should. Nebraska I feel a little more confident against than I did back in July.

That being said, this week will tell quite a bit. I don't think MSU is as good as they were last season, but they are probably the best team M has played since the miracle UTL.

If Hoke can break the first time coaching in the Paul Bunyan game streak, M will definitely be the front funner for the boneg game in Indianapolis. If not they'll need help.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say M will be playing in a BCS game this January.

Optimism

I'm not sure what's happening this year.  There have been two games where I've predicted M to win, and you've predicted a loss.  I've been right both times.

Since when am I the optimistic one?

I haven't made a decision yet, but I'm leaning towards a loss to MSU.

M vs. Northwestern prediciton based Denard's hacked twitter account

12 M
27 N (the N in Denard is not counted)