Boneg and Bowls

Not unlike most recent years, the Boneg is looking to have a very bad bowl season in 2014-2015.  And not unlike most recent years, it appears to me, and some other fans that don't want things to actually be as bad as they appear, that a primary reason the Boneg does so poorly in the bowl games is because the league has set up a lot of bad bowl matchups.  It always seems that the Boneg teams are playing teams that finished higher in their respective conferences than did the Boneg team in the Boneg.  

So, similar to some prior posts that I've had (so long ago, I don't want to go back and try to hyperlink to them), I will examine whether this theory is correct.  

I am simply going to list the teams in each game and their position in their respective conference. To keep things simple, the conference championship game winner is #1, with conference record for all other positions.  For a conference without a conference championship game, the conference record is used.  Ties will include all positions with the same record (you'll see what I mean).

The number of teams in a conference matters.  Being the 5th place team in a 10 team conference is different than being the 5th place team in a 14 team conference.  I will take this idea into account when reviewing this.

So, let's go...

Penn State (#12/14 teams) v Boston College (ACC, #6-8/14 teams).  Clearly, the Boneg should lose here.  Who is scheduling these games?  (0-1)

Illinois (#8-10/14) v Louisiana Tech (#2/13).  This is the only Boneg bowl game against a non-Power 5 conference school.  Power 5 or not, the #2 team of every conference in FBS should beat the #8 team in any other FBS conference (let alone the #10 team).  Boneg should lose.  (0-2).  This is going as expected.

Rutgers (#8-10/14) v North Carolina (#6-8/14).  If these teams were each at #8, it would be a push, but that isn't quite what is happening here.  Boneg should lose.  (0-3).  

Maryland (#6-7/14) v Stanford (#6-7/12).  This is where the size of the conference matters.  A 6th or 7th place team in a 14 team conference is in the top half of the conference.  6th or 7th in a 12 team conference is right at the border of top half/bottom half.  Boneg should win (1-3).  Minor setback.  Doesn't really change the theory. 

Iowa (#6-7/14) v Tennessee (#9-11/14).  Boneg should win (2-3).  Um, what's happening here?

Minnesota (#4-5/14) v Missouri (#2/14).  Boneg should lose (2-4).  Back on track to excuses, er explanations.  

Nebraska (#4-5/14) v USC (#3-5/12).  I had to do some extra calculations on this, with USC having a wider range, and there being a difference in size of conferences.  Basically I assumed each team would get a win against the teams above, and a loss against the teams below within their own conferences.  I used the average of the positions.  With that, USC was slightly higher (approx .750 v approx .730).  Boneg should lose (2-5). 

Wisconsin (#2-3/14) v Auburn (#6-8/14).  Boneg should win (3-5).  Ooof.  This one hurts because I really don't see it happening.

Michigan State (#2-3/14) v Baylor (#1-2/10).  I did the calculations similar to above, just to make sure (.940 to .880).  Boneg should lose.  (3-6)

Ohio State (#1/14) v Alabama (#1/14).  Tie. ("Good one, jiM)  (3-6-1)

So, the theory holds to a point.  It doesn't explain why the Boneg is the underdog in every bowl game, but it explains a little why Boneg will not do well for another bowl season.  

Ohio State Prediction based on sad expectations

M 9
OSU 42

Ohio State Prediction

Michigan 14

Ohio State 40

Maryland Prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 189-56-1 in all games I have attended (data is for games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 124-41-1 in conference games
M is 159-41-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 3-0 versus Maryland

The last time I saw M play Maryland was in 1990. this got me thinking what is the longest gap, game-wise, I've gone seeing M play a particular team. 

I have seen 194 Michigan games since they last played Maryland (145-48-1). The next longest gaps are USC (110 from the 1988 Rose Bowl to the 2004 Rose Bowl); Alabama (105 from the 2000 Orange Bowl to the 2012 game in Dallas); San Diego St (63 from 2004 to the 2011 match-up) and Utah (50 from 2000 through 2008).

There are teams with current longer streaks than Maryland, including Oregon St, Arizona St, Long Beach St, Miami (Fl), Wake Forest, and UCLA.

In conference games Penn State and Illinois both had 43 game runs. Iowa went 40 games. Wisconsin is the active leader with 37 games and counting.

M is 27-10-1 in the final home game of the season
M is 6-6 in the 9th game of the season
M is 32-5 versus teams with Nicknames of  egg laying animals
M is 15-4 against teams coached by someone I've seen coach a different team against Michigan
M is 164-47-1 without Frank Clark on the roster
 M is 13-2 when they'll be lead by Jim Harbaugh in their next game

It's easy when you add it all together

M 24
MD 17

Maryland Prediction

Michigan 23
Maryland 27

Is a no-SEC team playoff possible?

We'll see how this weeks Playoff Rankings affect things - but I think there is a reasonable - not sure how likely - chance that the SEC could be left out of the playoffs.
Here are the remaining games for teams in consideration.

team	week 10	week 11	week 12	Conf Champ
Miss St	Alabama	Vanderbilt	Miss	?
FSU	Miami	BC	Florida	win
Auburn	Georgia	Samford	Alabama	?
Oregon		Colorado	Oregon St	asu win
Alabama	Miss St	W Carolina	Auburn	?
TCU	Kansas	Texas	Iowa St
Az St	Oregon St	Wazoo	AZ	ORE loss
Mississippi		Arkansas	Miss St	?
Baylor	Ok St	Texas Tech	Kansas St
Nebraska	Wisconsin	Minnesota	Iowa	OSU
OSU	Minnesota	Indiana	Michigan	Nebraska

Here are my assumptions:
Miss St loses to Alabama and Ole Miss
Alabama beats Miss St and loses to Auburn
Ole Miss beats Miss St
Auburn at least beats Alabama
I think you would have a 4 way tie for the SEC West title between Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss and Mississippi St. I have no idea how the tie-breaker would work.
Missouri (not listed) wins the SEC East - I think as long as they don't lose twice - they will.
Missouri wins SEC Championship Game
FSU wins out including the ACC Championship game
Oregon and Arizona St win out, with Oregon winning the PAC-12 championship game
Ohio State and Nebraska win out - and whichever one wins the B1G championship game, wins it decisively.
Baylor and TCU win out.

Definitely in:
Florida St 13-0

Really likely in:
Oregon 12-1 with wins over two 2-loss teams
TCU 11-1 - only loss to 12-1 Baylor

Fighting for the last spot:
Baylor 11-1
Ohio State/Nebraska winner 11-2 - I feel like Ohio State has the stronger case beating MSU on the road? - But Nebraska has the better loss
Missouri 11-2 SEC Champ that lost to Indiana
SEC West Champ 10-3
non-SEC West champs 10-2

This scenario would get us an 8 team playoff NEXT YEAR - or sooner

Northwestern prediction based on the 1st time Anthony Carter touched the football vs Northwestern

M 21 N 14

Northwestern Prediction

Michigan 18
Northwestern 25

Last second field goal brings trophy back to TCU

The ESPN College Gameday crew traveled to Morgantown for this jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy battle. TCU prevailed on Jaden Oberkrom's last second field goal.

Photo by: Tommy Gilligan USA Today Sports

The Horned Frogs trailed for much of the game but the Mountaineers were never able to put them away.

TCU faces Kansas State this coming Saturday in Fort Worth before traveling to Kansas, Texas and hosting Iowa State. If they can keep the trophy this week - they will certainly be favored the rest of the way.

Indiana Prediction

Michigan 34 Indiana 27

 

Indiana prediction based on historical data

M is 188-56-1 in all games I have attended (data is for games I attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 158-41-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 123-41-1 in conference games

M is 14-0 against Indiana

M is 31-20 when unranked

M is 137-24-1 vs, unranked opponents

M is 11-5 in the 8th game I've attended in a season
M is 31-7 on their homecoming (33-7 on all homecomings)
M is 11-2 against teams with head coaches that share the last name with the main character playing opposite Tom Hanks in a Tom Hanks movie (volleyballs count)

It's easy when you add it all up

M 22
IU 21

WVU drops Baylor from ranks of Unbeaten and wins TROPHY

West Virginia failed to take the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy from Oklahoma just a few weeks ago, but given a second chance this season, they triumphed over previously undefeated Baylor 41-27.

(Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

  

Big XII schools have retained the trophy since WVU demolished Clemson in the 2012 Orange Bowl.  

 

WVU travels to Stillwater this week, then host TCU, travel to Texas, host Kansas St and finish the regular season in Ames, Iowa. 

ESPN currently project the Mountaineers in either the Russell Athletic Bowl vs. Duke or the Auto Zone Liberty Bowl vs. Cal. But that probably anticipates at least one loss during the regular season. It would seem the trophy is likely to stay in the Big XII until Bowl season.

Michigan State Prediction

Michigan 14 Michigan State 39

MSU Prediction based on historical data

M is 188-55-1 in all games I have attended (data is for games I attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 30-14 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 6-4 at Spartan Stadium
M is 0-1 when playing at the same away stadium in consecutive seasons
M is 123-40-1 in conference games

M is 16-7 vs Michigan State

M is 31-19 when unranked

M is 51-31 vs. ranked opponents

M is 8-6 when unranked playing a ranked opponent (lost 6 of last 7)

M is 17-6 in the 7th game I've seen in a season

It's easy when you add it all up

M 7
MSU 27

Baylor triumphant in trophy thriller

Baylor scored 24 points in the final 11 minutes to complete a come-from-behind Trophy taking over TCU.

TCU scored 58 points in the loss - the second most for a trophy-game loser in history behind - of course Baylor's 63 points in a loss to WVU in 2012. Who does Baylor play next week?

WVU.

The Bears had a long run with the trophy in 2012-2013. They beat Kansas St in November of 2012 and rattled off 12 more victories before falling to Oklahoma St in November of last year.

Baylor is 23-11 all time in trophy games. Their remaining schedule is all conference games.

After going to Morgantown this weekend, they have a bye week. Their remaining schedule is:

11/01 - Kansas
11/08 - at Oklahoma
11/22 - Oklahoma St
11/29 - Texas Tech
12/06 - Kansas St.

At least three close match-up there.

As one of the 6 remaining undefeated teams, Baylor is certainly in playoff consideration. There is a chance the Trophy could make it to the playoffs in it's first season!

Penn State prediction based on historical data

M is 187-55-1 in all games I have attended (data is for games I attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 157-41-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 122-40-1 in conference games

M is 7-3 in night games 

M is 2-0 #UNDERTHELIGHTS™

M is 1-2 wearing Dave Brandon/adidas's UNIFORMZ

M is 8-2 vs Penn State

M is 30-19 when unranked

M is 136-24-1 vs, unranked opponents

M is 5-3 after 3 (or more) consecutive losses 

M is 20-7-1 in the 6th game I've seen in a season

It's easy when you add it all up

M 27
PSU 24

Penn State Prediction

Penn State 23 Michigan 19

TCU takes the trophy from Oklahoma

While I was sitting in the stands at the birthplace of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy - TCU was shocking Oklahoma 37-33 to make the trophy theirs!

(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

The Horned Frogs have only won the trophy once before. In October of 1991 they defeated Rice only to lose to Baylor a week later. They've also played for the trophy sic other times. Losing to LSU in 1959, Ohio St in 1969, USC in 1977, BYU in 1996, and Texas Tech and Kansas St. in 2012.

TCU travels to Baylor this weekend in a match-up of top-ten teams.

At the birthplace of College Football and the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy

Rutgers Prediction

Michigan 18
Rutgers 30

Rutgers Prediction based on historical data

M is 187-54-1 in all games have attended (all data is from games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 30-13 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 22-10 in true road games
M is 122-39-1 in conference games
M is 30-18 when unranked
M is 136-23-1 against unranked opponents
M is 49-8 when facing teams for the 1st time

• Rutgers of course played in the very first college football game, which began the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy - currently held by Oklahoma

M is 20-9 in the 5th game I've seen in a season
M is 57-21-1 against teams with Human-ish mascots
M is 22-4 against teams coached by men whose last name is a common verb
M is 23-6 when there is uncertainty about who will start at QB (admittedly there is a lot of looking back with speculation in this number)
And just in case,
M is 2-2 in the last game for their head coach

It's easy when you add it all up

M 17
R 20

Now from the lawn of the president's house

Reporting live from the Fire Brandon Rally - not much happening...

Minnesota Prediction based on Historical Data

M is 187-53-1 in all games have attended (all data is from games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 157-37-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 122-38-1 in conference games
M is 14-2 against Minnesota
M is 30-17 when unranked
M is 136-22-1 against unranked opponents
M is 0-1 when facing teams for the 17th time
M is 24-5 in the 4th game I've seen in a season
M is 24-4 against teams with rodent/weasel mascots
M is 22-3 against teams coached by men whose last name is a common verb
M is 23-5 when there is uncertainty about who will start at QB (admittedly there is a lot of looking back with speculation in this number)




M is 34-10 when #7 starts at QB (making an assumption here)

It's easy when you add it all together:

Michigan 16
Minnesota 14

Minnesota Prediction

Michigan 27
Minnesota 19

Utah prediction based on Historical data

Michigan is 187-52-1 in all games I have attended (all data is for games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 65-14 in non-conference games
M is 30-16 when unranked
M is 136-21-1 against unranked opponents
M is 157-36-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 1-1 against Utah
M is 18-5-1 against teams with Native American Nicknames
M is 28-1 in the third attended game of the season
M is 3-1 against teams that have represented multiple conferences
M is 21-4-1 against teams that have their nickname start with the same letter as their school name

It's easy when you add it all up...

M 28
U 31

Utah Prediction

Michigan 33
Utah 25

Miami (Ohio) Prediction

Michigan 39
Miami (Ohio) 16

Miami Prediction based on Historical data

Miami is 1-4 in games I have attended (data is for games I attended unless otherwise specified)
Miami is 0-4 against Michigan
Miami is 1-4 in the state of Michigan
Miami is 0-0 against teams that have won a game (attended or otherwise) before playing
Miami won the first college game I ever attended Nov-8-1975 over winless Western Michigan

Now for the real data

Michigan is 186-52-1 in all games I have attended
M is 64-14 in non-conference games
M is 29-16 when unranked
M is 135-21-1 against unranked opponents
M is 156-36-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 4-0 against Miami (OH) (4-1 against all Miamis)
M is 19-4 against teams with nicknames (at least sometimes - I see you Golden Gophers) containing a color
M is 23-6 in the second attended game of the season
M is 17-3-1 against teams that had been previously coached by an M coach I have seen coach M (i.e Miami, Illinois, Ball St; SD St...)

It's easy when you add it all up...

Michigan 58
Miami 7

Attendance Crisis

For both home games this season groups of 99 tickets have been available the week of the game.

Plenty of good seats still available for Saturday - let me know if anyone needs 99 together... #GoBlue pic.twitter.com/KHEeVJBPeC
— Mike Altese (@mpharmd98) September 11, 2014

Blocks of 99 tickets still available for Saturday - nice work @davebrandonad pic.twitter.com/CIXmXx3gWo
— Mike Altese (@mpharmd98) August 26, 2014

I tend to think this is a perfect storm of indifference:

• Coming off consecutive poor seasons
• Only one "successful" season since 2006
• Horrible home schedule
• Continual messing with the student tickets
• DYNAMIC pricing - and just pricing in general
• Getting shut out at Notre Dame

I predict an announced attendance below 104,000 this week.

Big Game Bob keeps the trophy in Norman

Oklahoma dominated in-state-rival Tulsa 52-7 last Saturday to keep possessions of the jiMpossible-SarcasMike Trophy. The Sooners will likely face a tougher test this week as they host Tennessee.

The Volunteers have had quite a history with the Trophy. They first won it from Auburn in 1938 - they then rattled off 17 wins (only allowing 6 points in the process). That took them to the 1940 Rose Bowl - where they lost to Southern Cal. Included in that run is a win over Oklahoma in the 1939 Orange Bowl.

There next trophy win was in the 1955 finale over Vanderbilt. The ripped off 10 straight wins in 1956 before falling to Baylor in the 1957 Sugar Bowl.

They've also held the trophy for 3 weeks in 1957, one week in 1959, one in 1966, 3 in 1967 and most recently a 7 game run in 1974-75 that I swear ended in a game I remember seeing on TV against UCLA.

Additional losses in to trophy holders:
Alabama in 1942, 1964, 1977, 1986
Ole Miss in 1960, 1962, 1963
USC 1980
UCLA 1985
Nebraska 1998 (could have secured full MNC for Michigan)
Miami 2002
Florida 2007, 2009

I think the trophy will stay with Oklahoma for another week.

Notre Dame Prediction based on highlight from spring game

M (73.)29 - ND (73.)26

Notre Dame Prediction

Notre Dame 32
Michigan 27

Sooners roll to keep Trophy

As expected Oklahoma rolled over Louisiana Tech to keep the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy. This Saturday they travel to in-state rival Tulsa. The Sooners are a 24.5 point favorite.

The Golden Hurricane held the trophy back in 1996. They won it from Iowa #B1G and retained it against Oklahoma and Colorado State, before losing to BYU.

jiMpossible & sarcasMike finally got the treatment from the Athletic Department we deserved

Prediction for Appalachian State game

Michigan 40
Appalachian State 15

Prediction for the Season

8-4, loss in the bowl.  (and Ira coach Hoke will not be fired)

Appalachian State prediction based on historical data

M is 185-52-1 in games I have attended - all data is for games I have attended unless otherwise specified
M is 0-1 against Appalachian State
M is 33-5 in the season opener
M is 5-1 in August
M is 63-14 in non-conference games
M is 134-21-1 against unranked opponents 
M is 28-16 when unranked
M is 17-1 when facing a conference for the first time (only loss to App State in the Southern Conference)
M is 0-1 against teams with the Nickname Mountaineers (Mountaineers are 2-0 in all games I have seen - WVU over Syracuse in 1988)
M is 155-36-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 56-21-1 when facing schools with human-ish nicknames
M is 3-1 in my first game in new seats with my non-student season tickets (again only loss to App St)
M is 3-1 in games at Michigan Stadium when - in my opinion - there was potentially less than 100,000 actually in attendance (Northwestern 1984; Memphis 1995; Purdue 1995; Northwestern 2008)

It's easy when you add it all up

M 38
App St 3

blocked again

Dave Brandon joins Jalen Rose in blocking me on twitter.

I'm not exactly sure when he blocked me. Here are the tweets that I mentioned him in:

@mayph shouldn't UM football prefer UMHS? @davebrandonad and his marketing pinheads are so annoying #GoBluebutnotdavebrandon
— Mike Altese (@mpharmd98) November 16, 2013

Why is @umichfootball "presented by Meijer"? Another #marketingpinhead plan from @davebrandonad ? pic.twitter.com/gQ0VeQuTjY
— Mike Altese (@mpharmd98) October 14, 2013

Needed in Michigan Stadium @DaveBrandonAD MT @darrenrovell: Patriots are latest NFL team to offer free Wi-Fi http://t.co/1LpFyMw1
— Mike Altese (@mpharmd98) September 10, 2012

Ahem @davebrandonad MT @tigers: #Tigers fans: Don't forget you CAN bring sealed bottles of unflavored water to every home game.
— Mike Altese (@mpharmd98) June 23, 2013

Pssst @davebrandonad time to follow suit #goblue RT @DBriggsBlade: University is more than quadrupling financial commitment to OSUMB.
— Mike Altese (@mpharmd98) May 21, 2013

@DaveBrandonAD not sending the #MMBtoDallas to support @UMichFootball is an embarrassment - still time to do the right thing
— Mike Altese (@mpharmd98) April 19, 2012

I will admit none of these are very positive towards Dave, I don't think they're block worthy. Maybe the "marketing pinheads" was too far?

January Prediction for M 2014 record

Having predicted M to lose in the conference championship game each of the last two years, I think it is time to step down the expectations.

Appalachian State - W
at Notre Dame -L
Miami (NTM) - W
Utah - W
Minnesota - W
at Rutgers - W
Penn State - W
at MSU - L
Indiana - W
at Northwestern - W
Maryland - W
at OSU - L
Cap One vs. LSU* - L

9-4 - Prove me wrong Michigan, please prove me wrong!

Accuracy check:
2012: Predicted 9-5; ended 8-5
2012: Predicted 10-4; ended 7-6


* I was a year off prediction M vs. Kansas State, so I'll try to double up on my LSU prediction

Sooners Surprise in Sugar

Oklahoma didn't worry about being a two touchdown underdog. They turned the table and beat defending National Champion Alabama by two touchdowns. Maybe Stoopes was right about the Big 12 being comparable to the SEC?

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Of course the most important question, is "What is the soonest M can win the trophy?"

Here is Oklahoma's 2014 schedule:

Date	opponent
8/30/2014	Louisiana Tech
9/13/2014	Tennessee
9/20/2014	at Tulsa
9/27/2014	at WVU
10/4/2014	at TCU
10/11/2014	vs. Texas
10/18/2014	Kansas St
10/30/2014	at Iowa St
11/8/2014	Baylor
11/15/2014	at Texas Tech
11/22/2014	Kansas
11/29/2014	Oklahoma St

As you can see they do not play Michigan, nor do any of their opponents. So we have to go down a level.

LaTech's schedule is not set, but their non-conference schedule includes NORTHWESTERN State (boo), Auburn and Louisiana Lafayette. Nothing likely there.
After Oklahoma, Tennessee faces only SEC teams and Chattanooga, still not looking good.
Tulsa's schedule is also not finalized. After Oklahoma their only non-conference game is North Texas.
Then we get into conference schedules. It looks like Michigan's best chance again is going to be in Bowl season.