Bowl Predictions - Day 10

Music City Bowl:
Vanderbilt 31
North Carolina State 14

Sun Bowl:
USC 45
Georgia Tech 24

Liberty Bowl:
Iowa State 27
Tulsa 17

Peach Bowl:
LSU 33
Clemson 31

South Carolina Prediction

South Carolina College 29

Catholepistemiad of Michigania 20

Bowl Predictions - Day 9

Armed Forces Bowl:
Rice 27
Air Force 24

Pinstripe Bowl:
West Virginia 51
Syracuse 38

Fight Hunger:
Arizona State 38
Navy 10

Alamo Bowl:
Oregon State 31
Texas 21

Restaurant on State and Washington Bowl:
TCU 17
MSU 9

Baylor keeps Trophy into 2013

Baylor knocked off UCLA in the Holiday Bowl last night 49-26 to keep the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy for the off-season.
The trophy spent the entire season in the Big 12. A one conference season has been more of the norm lately. The Trophy was in the SEC for both the 2009-2010 seasons after Florida beat Oklahoma in the 2009 BCS Championship game. The Big 12 had the trophy the entire regular season of 2008 and the SEC had it all of 2007.
You have to go all the way back to 1996 to find the trophy in more than 2 conferences in a season.

As I said coming into the bowls, Baylor seems to have a relatively light non-conference schedule in 2013 so we may see another year of Big 12 trophy holding.

Bowl Predictions - Day 8

Independence Bowl:
Louisiana - Monroe 28
Ohio 24

(Cazzie) Russell Athletic Bowl:
Rutgers 17
Virginia Tech 14

Bowl of Texas:
Texas Tech 31
Minnesota 17

Bowl Predictions - Day 7

Military Bowl:

San Jose State  35
Bowling Green 14

Belk Bowl:
Cincinnati 28
Duke 27

Holiday Bowl:
UCLA 38
Baylor 35

Note the Holiday Bowl has Trophy implications

Bowl Predictions - Day 6

Mean, Unnamed Corporate Bowl:
Western Kentucky 45
Central Michigan 31

Bowl Predictions - Day 5

Hawai'i Bowl:
Fresno State 38
Southern Methodist 14

Bowl Predictions - Day 4

New Orleans Bowl:
Louisiana-Lafayette 31 East Carolina 20

Las Vegas Bowl:
Boise State 17 Washington 14

Bowl Predictions - Day 3

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl:
Central Florida 35 Ball State 24

Bowl predictions - Day 2

Pointsettia Bowl:
BYU 17 San Diego State 14

Michigan's Outback Bowl Uniforms

Twitter, blogs and sports talk radio erupted yesterday in a panic about the uniforms Michigan will wear in the Outback Bowl. The vast majority of it was negative. Here's a few of the bloggers.

MVictors
BrianGoBlog
MaizenBrew

I'll start by saying I kind of like them. I like the maize numbers and I have no problem with the blue shoulder yokes. Of all the things they could have done to the helmet, a matte finish is not so bad.

That being said, I will jump on the "Why does Michigan need to do this" bandwagon. Traditional powers shouldn't have to do this. Alabama, USC, Notre Dame, Penn State, Ohio State haven't had special Bowl Uniforms. I wonder if M had been the home team, if there would have been Maize shoulders on a navy jersey.

I think the jerseys led to some hyperbole. This tweet cannot be true.

Total number of jersey designs worn by @umichfootball 1969-2010: Three.Total number of jersey designs worn by Michigan 2011-present: 7!
— Hoover Street Rag (@hooverstreet) December 18, 2012

Off the top of my head I can thing of 5 designs M wore in those years. Let's see how many it really is.

1. 1969 through 2010 Home jersey (all the others are white/away jerseys)
2. 1969 through 1973 "no stripe-no M" 
3. 1974 and 1975 thin Blue-Maize-Blue stripe with white pants 
4. 1976 same tops with maize pants
5. 1977 through 1996 "Schembechler Stripes"
6. The exception was the 1993 Rose Bowl which were more like the 74-76 striping. This is the only single game one off I find in the pre-David Brandon era.
7. 1997 through 2004 Block M and Maize/Blue stripe
8. 2005 through 2007 Single blue stripe on sleeve, maize piping, maize outline on blue numbers, no M almost 69-73ish in simplicity (except for the piping and outlined numbers)
9. 2008 through 2010 - thicker piping at jersey torso - and switch to adidas

Now 9 jerseys in 40 years is not quite 7 in 2, but it is more than 3...

Bowl Predictions - day 1

New Mexico Bowl:
Arizona 63 Nevada 45

Potato Bowl:
Utah State 35 Toledo 31

Team 133 seniors in sarcasMike History

Since I won't be going to the Outback Bowl, Michigan's victory over Iowa was the last time I will have seen the seniors of team 133 play for the Wolverines. From my weekly prediction posts you can tell I keep track of the outcomes of all the Michigan games I have attended.

I have a separate database that tracks the individual Michigan player statistics (rushing, passing, receiving and interceptions) in the games I've attended as well. So where do the departing seniors rank?

Rushing (top 20 in yards rushing):

	Carries	Yards	avg	TD	lg	years
Hart, Michael	749	3,683	4.9	31	64	04-07
Thomas, Anthony	688	3,384	4.9	42	60	97-00
Robinson, Denard	459	2,940	6.4	31	79	09-12
Perry, Chris	545	2,720	5.0	29	63	00-03
Wheatley, Tyrone	370	2,294	6.2	26	82	91-94
Morris, Jamie	412	2,182	5.3	13	57	84-87
Boles, Tony	334	1,897	5.7	18	81	88-89
Biakabatuka, Tshimanga	236	1,583	6.7	12	60	93-95
Powers, Ricky	311	1,455	4.7	13	39	90-93
Minor, Brandon	221	1,245	5.6	15	55	06-09
Toussaint, Fitzgerald	204	1,163	5.7	11	61	10-12
Hoard, Leroy	216	1,138	5.3	14	54	87-89
Williams, Clarence	265	1,104	4.2	3	32	95-98
Smith, Vincent	185	1,027	5.6	9	56	09-12
Howard, Chris	211	969	4.6	9	30	94-97
Askew, BJ	202	935	4.6	12	30	99-02
Davis, Ed	193	898	4.7	8	33	92-95
Bunch, Jarrod	203	888	4.4	6	53	87-90
Shaw, Michael	133	837	6.3	12	50	08-11
Jefferson, Allen	133	761	5.7	8	70	87-90

Denard ends up 3rd in yards rushing, 4th in carries and tied for 2nd in rushing TDs. Vincent Smith became the 15th to top the 1,000 yard mark in games I've attended (he did it against U-Mass). Fitz Toussaint is, hopefully still active.

Passing (top 20 in yards):

	Att	comp	pct	QB Rate	yds	TD	int	lg	years
Henne, Chad	934	562	60.2%	132.8	6,284	59	22	69	04-07
Navarre, John	775	451	58.2%	130.7	5,355	43	15	64	00-03
Robinson, Denard	468	272	58.1%	152.3	4,335	39	26	77	09-12
Collins, Todd	423	281	66.4%	155.5	3,647	28	11	90	91-94
Brady, Tom	487	292	60.0%	134.1	3,636	26	15	57	96-99
Grbac, Elvis	439	278	63.3%	149.8	3,508	36	17	65	89-92
Harbaugh, Jim	292	196	67.1%	159.7	2,704	21	13	77	85-86
Henson, Drew	286	167	58.4%	141.0	2,240	17	4	75	98-00
Griese, Brian	317	180	56.8%	124.4	2,153	18	13	75	95-97
Forcier, Tate	276	169	61.2%	132.3	2,009	15	11	61	09-10
Dreisbach, Scott	236	127	53.8%	127.4	1,810	12	9	58	95-97
Taylor, Michael	206	122	59.2%	138.2	1,608	12	6	45	86-89
Brown, Demetrius	161	88	54.7%	135.8	1,376	10	9	53	86-88
Threet, Steven	164	77	47.0%	97.8	846	8	7	51	08
Gardner, Devin	77	47	61.0%	164.8	787	6	3	53	10-12
Mallett, Ryan	99	48	48.5%	111.3	631	4	2	48	07
Smith, Steve	53	24	45.3%	129.3	405	5	3	52	80-83
Leach, Rick	29	22	75.9%	278.4	385	8	0	63	76-78
Sheirdan, Nick	80	38	47.5%	78.6	352	1	4	35	07-09
Wangler, John	29	16	55.2%	162.5	292	2	0	45	76, 79-80

Denard also finishes 3rd in passing yards and TD passes and number 1 in interceptions. His QB rating is 3rd among the 1,000 yard passers. His yards per attempt really keep him in the running there. Devin Gardner is on track to take the all-time QB ranking title.

Receiving (top 20 in total receptions): 

	Catches	yards	avg	TD	lg	Years
Edwards, Braylon	152	2,120	13.9	29	64	01-04
Terrell, David	118	1,840	15.6	17	57	98-00
Walker, Marquise	114	1,475	12.9	11	75	98-01
Avant, Jason	109	1,403	12.9	8	54	02-05
Breaston, Steve	107	1,075	10.0	5	50	03-06
Manningham, Mario	99	1,633	16.5	19	69	05-07
Roundtree, Roy	93	1,506	16.2	10	75	09-12
Hayes, Mercury	81	1,468	18.1	10	58	92-95
Alexander, Derrick	79	1,317	16.7	15	90	89-90,92-93
Mathews, Greg	79	841	10.6	5	40	06-09
McMurtry, Greg	74	1,334	18.0	9	53	86-89
Arrington, Adrian	73	863	11.8	7	33	04-07
Streets, Tai	72	1,125	15.6	10	58	95-98
Howard, Desmond	70	1,050	15.0	14	64	89-91
Toomer, Amani	70	1,334	19.1	12	75	92-95
Askew, BJ	64	617	9.6	5	58	99-02
Hemingway, Junior	61	1,164	19.1	11	77	07-11
Thomas, Anthony	61	541	8.9	0	46	97-00
Morris, Jamie	59	435	7.4	1	24	84-87
Odoms, Martavious	58	664	11.4	3	50	08-11

Roy Roundtree is the only departing senior in the top 20. He finished 7th in receptions, 4th in yards and tied for 6th in TD receptions. Jeremy Gallon is just off the top 20 (50-874-4-77) so he should crack the list next season. 

Unfortunately no on on defense cracked the interceptions leaders. Kovacs career ended with 2, Kenny Demens and Craig Row with 1.

Baylor will bring the Trophy to the Holiday Bowl

Baylor held off a late charge by Oklahoma State to retain the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy 41-34.
When Baylor takes on UCLA on December 27th (9:45 EST) in the Holiday Bowl it will be the 62nd time the trophy has gone Bowling.

The trophy holder is 38-23 in Bowl games. Most recently Clemson got clobbered by West Virginia in last season's Orange Bowl 70-33.

Here's a quick looks at both teams 2013 schedule to see if there is a chance the trophy can come to the boneg:

Baylor's non-conference opponents are Buffalo, SMU and Louisiana-Monroe. Buffalo does travel to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes next season, but it is the week before the Baylor game - so no quick trips to the boneg via Baylor.

UCLA opens with Nevada then goes to Lincoln Nebraska before closing out the non-con with New Mexico. So 2 UCLA wins and then there is a chance Nebraska could bring the trophy back to the boneg for the first time since Ohio State lost the 2007 BCS championship game to Florida. Penn State was the last conference team to face the trophy holder when they took on Alabama in 2010.

So a UCLA victory is the easiest trip back to the boneg - Go Bruins!

Baylor keeps the trophy

With their 52-45 overtime victory, Baylor not only secured Bowl eligibility yesterday, they retained control of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy.

Trophy games have not produced much defense this season. The average score has been 49.25 - 31.25.  The Bears host Oklahoma State next week.

Looking ahead the Big-12 Bowl tie-ins look something like this: (with Jerry Palm's predictions)

Champ - Fiesta (Kansas St)
2nd - BCS at-large (Oklahoma) not a guaranteed tie-in but likely
3rd - Cotton (Texas)
4th - Alamo (TCU)
5th - Buffalo Wild Wings (Oklahoma St)
6th - Holiday (Texas Tech)
7th - Meinecke Car Care (Baylor)
8th - Pinstripe (West Virginia)
9th - Heart of Dallas (Iowa State) this is not a Big12 tie-in but a predicted filled with a bowl eligible team.

I would guess from that list that Pal is predicting an Oklahoma State victory over Baylor.

Michigan vs. OSU prediction

M hasn't won in Columbus since 2000 when Drew Henson's bootleg secured the victory and helped usher in the Jim Tressel era. That was also the last time jiMpossible and I watched the Columbus version of the M-OSU game together. Once again, jiMpossible has decided to watch the game with family instead of securing victory by watching it with me.

That combined with my picking OSU back in January, all but seals the loss. The dual QB offense isn't quite as productive against a team that isn't Iowa. Denard leads M in rushing, scores his final regular season TD (one last kneel in the opposition endzone), but it isn't enough

M 20 OSU 31

But wait, maybe since in the above referenced January prediction I still thought M would make the  boneg championship game... with Iowa going all Iowa yesterday, M cannot play in that game, even with a victory. Maybe, just maybe...

M 20 OSU 23

still not enough...

Go Blue, prove me wrong!

OSU Prediction

M 21
OSU 39

For the good of the game

In the spirit of Ohio State petitioning the Obama administration to have their bowl ban lifted, I thought maybe it was time to petition for something more. I think we need an individual responsible for protecting college sports (specifically college football) from itself.

Here's what I have so far - let me know what you think:

Division 1 college football (FBS ) has become a jumbled mess of misaligned conferences full of vagabond teams chasing the all-mighty dollar. The Big TEN has 14 teams. Texas and Texas A&M will no longer play each other. Missouri and Kansas will no longer play each other. Penn State and Pittsburgh haven’t played each other regularly in years. Nebraska and Oklahoma – perhaps one of the top 2-3 rivalries of the 1970s and 80s was devalued by the creation of the Big 12 and has disappeared completely with Nebraska’s move to the Big1T4en. 

At what point will this end? The demolition two of the most dominant basketball conferences of the past 30 years the ACC and the Big East have shown that tradition and logic are thrown out the window to get a better football television deal.

Please exercise your executive power to create a College Football/Athletics Czar.  This position should have “For the good of the game” powers similar to what Bowie Kuhn wielded in 1970s MLB. At a minimum the Czar would have the power to review and restrict the movement of schools to illogical conferences and ideally would have the power to return conferences to something like the logical geography of the early 1990s.

Trophy heads to Waco

For the first time since 1991 the Baylor Bears are holders of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy. The Bears not only dashed the MNC hopes of the Wildcats, they also took the trophy 52-24.

Baylor is 10-10 all-time in trophy games. This is their 4th time holding the trophy.  In the 1957 Sugar Bowl, they knocked off Tennessee. They opened the 1957 season with 2 victories before falling to Miami on 10/5/1957.

Their trophy drought had reached 34 years before taking the trophy from Colorado on 9/14/1991. They rattled off 3 more wins before losing to Rice. Rice subsequently lost to TCU and the Bears re-took the trophy the next week from the Horned Frogs. They won again the the next week before a late season loss to Texas Tech sent the trophy away.

They had 4 chances to win the trophy in the intervening 21 years. They lost in 1997 to Nebraska, 1998 to Texas A&M, 2008 to Oklahoma State and earlier this season to West Virginia.

The remaining schedule for Baylor is next week hosting Texas Tech and they close the season hosting Oklahoma State. Not much has made sense in the Big Twelve this season, so there is still a lot of drama to come. That remaining schedule does guarantee a bowl visit for the Trophy as Baylor's opponents are already eligible and Baylor will be if they win out.

Iowa Prediction

Michigan 38
Iowa 24

Better use of the Michigan Stadium videoboards

The MMB had a Willy Wonka halftime show this past weekend with prospective students getting the Golden Ticket and a chance to go to Michigan. The mistakes made by the kids in the book/movie are made by students who end up at other boneg schools. Charlie's little brother of course ends up at Michigan State but his complaint with Wonka and UM is the bigger screen they have at Spartan Stadium. The joke ends up being all the ads the Spartys have to include on the their bigger screen makes the bigger screen a wash. (Skip to about 7:50 for little brother.)

But Michigan doesn't actually take full advantage of their own big screen. I'm not asking for ads - I'm asking to leave it as a big video board - stop cutting a quarter of the screen off for stats.

I propose using the big screens in conjunction with the empty space on the luxury boxes/press box to provide the information cluttering up the big screen.

The important stuff - the score, time remaining AND a full video of the action/replay - are still on the big boards - but the auxiliary things, most of which we've only had since 1998, are still available just found in a different place.

M vs. Iowa prediction based on Historical Data

M is 178-49-1 in all games I have attended (data is ONLY for games I have attended unless otherwise mentioned)
M is 119-35-1 in conference games
M is 149-34-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 128-20-1against unranked opponents
M is 151-35-1 when ranked
M is 2-1 when ranked #23
M is 10-4 vs. Iowa
M is 25-5 when facing schools with "bird" based nicknames
M is 16-5 in the 7th game of the season
M is 41-13-1 in November
M is 147-381 vs. Public Schools
M is 22-5 when it was unsure who would start at QB (admittedly there is a lot of looking back with speculation in this number)
M is 34-7 with #16 as starting QB
M is 8-1 with #12 as starting QB
M is 14-4 with a QB starting his second game/1-1 with a QB starting his 25th game
M is 103-26 on artificial turf
M is 26-9-1 in the last seen home game of the season (17-9-1 when it is actually the last home game)
M is 4-1 against Legends Division match-ups
M is 14-2 in games with Brady Hoke as their head coach (M is 15-2 when Hoke coaches either team)
              Quick rundown of all M coaches: Bo 42-8; Mo 24-7-1; Carr 86-18; RR 12-14
M is 40-12  against all schools where I have seen more M coaches then opponent coaches in head to head match-ups (BC, EMU, Iowa, OSU, PSU, Wazoo, WMU are only qualifiers)
M is 3-1 in their head coach's 17th game

It's easy when you add it all together:

M 38 Iowa 10

Northwestern prediction

Michigan 32
Northwestern 18

M vs. Northwestern prediction based on historical data

M is 177-49-1 in all games I have attended (data is for games I have attended unless otherwise mentioned)
M is 118-35-1 in conference games
M is 148-34-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 50-29 against ranked opponents
M is 26-14 when unranked
M is 7-5 when unranked facing a ranked opponent (5 straight losses)
M is 2-2 against teams ranked #21 (1-1 against #21 Northwestern)
M is 12-3 vs. Northwestern
M is 28-5 when facing schools with "cat" based nicknames
M is 18-7-1 in the 6th game of the season
M is 40-13-1 in November
M is 30-11 vs. Private Schools
M is 21-5 when it was unsure who would start at QB (admittedly there is a lot of looking back with speculation in this number)
M is 34-7 with #16 as starting QB
M is 7-1 with #12 as starting QB
M is 14-3 against teams who are identified with a uniform stripe style (see Northwestern and UCLA)

It's easy when you add it all together...

M 31 Northwestern 17

M vs. Minnesota Prediction

Last week I broke from my January prediction and it was the first time I was wrong all season (on the outcome). I forgot to predict Denard's injury! It's time to get back on the January train.

Michigan 30
Minnesota 6

Kansas State - 1st time trophy holder

For the first time in their history, Kansas State has won the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy. The Wildcats kept Texas Tech's reign a short one, with a 55-24 victory.

Two times before they had played for the trophy - both in 1997. They lost to BYU 19-15 on January 1 in the Cotton Bowl and then on October 4, they lost to co-MNC Nebraska 56-26.

The Wildcats also earned the #2 ranking in the BCS this week. To stay on the path for the MNC, they have a somewhat challenging schedule. This Saturday night they host #24 Oklahoma State. They go on the road the following 2 weeks at TCU and at Baylor, before finishing off the regular season hosting Texas on December 1.

They'll be favored in every game, but as WVU can tell you, the favorite doesn't always win in trophy games!

Boneg Ladder

It is spreading out nicely.  Surprisingly, there aren't any jumble (a beat b, b beat c, c beat a) situations yet.

Here it is:

OSU
NEB  PSU
MI   NU
IA
MSU
IN   WIS
IL   MN
PU

Using this as a predictor, M would only lose one* of the remaining games (at OSU).  NEB would not lose again and would represent the Legend Division in the Boneg Championship Game (BoChaGa).  The Leader Division would have IN as the representative in the BoChaGa, after they beat WI** at home giving both teams 3-5 conference records.

This week's games:
-WI at IN to see who is the 8th best team in the Boneg and get the inside track on being Leader Division rep in the BoChaGa.
-NEB at MSU.  GO SPARTANS!!! Yes, I said it.
-OSU at IL.  The best on the ladder against the almost worst.  Imagine what would happen if OSU DID play the bottom rung team.  That would be a crazy blowo...oh, wait.
-MI at MN.  Even after what he did to us in 1986 (when I was dressed as Gilligan), I still like Rickey Foggie.
-PSU at PU.  The worst on the ladder against the almost best.  Imagine what would happen if PU DID play the top rung team.  That would be a crazy blowo...oh, wait.
-IA at IN.  How is this bad Iowa team so high on this ladder?


*HAHAHAHAHAHAAH. NADM

**Even if WI beats IN (which is more likely than the Ladder prediction), then I would expect WI to be only 4-4 when they play in the BoChaGa. ***

***BoChaGa count:  4, now 5.

Michigan vs. Nebraska Prediction

Looking back at my January predictions for Michigan, I am a perfect 7-0 thus far. Unfortunately, I picked M to lose to Nebraska. I guess I should stay true to my January thesis.

At the time I was thinking the 2012 version of M would likely be a better team than the 2011 squad, but not have as good a record due to the "tougher" games taking place away from Michigan Stadium. While I think playing at Notre Dame and replacing Western Michigan with Alabama are certainly factors in the 5-2 record, I'm not convinced this is a better team.

Certainly offensively the team has taken a step back. Toussaint has not looked like he did in the second half of the season and Robinson has been more of the 2011-at-MSU-Denard than the 4th-quarter-against-Notre-Dame-Denard. I'm not sure how much of the decline can be blamed on losing Molk and Hemingway.

The other side of the ball seems to be about the same even without their best players from last year. It would seem the play of this defense has shown I was off base following the squeaker with Air Force. Mattison might just be a genius...

If I can be wrong about Mattison, I can be wrong about losing to Nebraska...

M 28 N 24

Nebraska Prediction

Nebraska 34
Michigan 26

Trophy Update - It left West Virginia, but the scores seem the same...

Texas Tech held on to the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy on Saturday - but is seems they may have brought West Virginia's defense with them. Tech held on for a 56-53 triple overtime victory over TCU.

The Red Raiders had taken a 10 point lead with 4:06 remaining but allowed TCU to score - hold them to a 3-and-out and Kick the tying field goal with just 18 seconds left.

The teams swapped TDs in the first two overtimes, but Tech held the Frogs to a field goal in the 3rd. Seth Doege's 7th TD pass was the game winner.

Texas Tech faces perhaps it's toughest match-up of the season as they head to the Little Apple, Manhattan Kansas to face #3 Kansas State.

North Endzone vs. South Endzone - Defense

My mom passed away in 2003. In May of that year my dad was in town for the 50th anniversary of his graduation from the Michigan College of Pharmacy. Coincidentally, Michigan Stadium was converting form a grass field back to artificial turf. Along with my sister we somehow got into the stadium and were able to place some of my mom's ashes in the South Endzone, just to the right of the goal post (the flag pole side). The turf had not been laid down, so her ashes are actually now covered by the turf.

My dad has asked me to determine if her presence in the South Endzone has helped make that end better defensively than the North End. Here are the results.

Date	Opp	North	South
8/30/2003	CMU	7	0
9/6/2003	Houston	0	3
9/13/2003	Notre Dame	0	0
9/27/2003	Indiana	14	3
10/18/2003	Illinois	7	7
10/25/2003	Purdue	0	3
11/22/2003	OSU	14	7
9/4/2004	Miami (OH)	7	3
9/18/2004	San Diego St	7	14
9/25/2004	Iowa	14	3
10/9/2004	Minnesota	10	14
10/30/2004	MSU	14	13
11/13/2004	Northwestern	10	10
9/3/2005	Northern Illinois	7	10
9/10/2005	Notre Dame	7	10
9/17/2005	EMU	0	0
10/8/2005	Minnesota	20	3
10/15/2005	Penn St.	22	3
11/12/2005	Indiana	0	14
11/19/2005	OSU	19	6
9/2/2006	Vanderbilt	7	0
9/9/2006	CMU	17	0
9/23/2006	Wisconsin	7	6
10/7/2006	MSU	7	6
10/21/2006	Iowa	6	0
10/28/2006	Northwestern	0	3
11/4/2006	Ball St	16	10
9/1/2007	Appalachian St	24	10
9/8/2007	Oregon	18	21
9/15/2007	Notre Dame	0	0
9/22/2007	Penn St.	3	6
10/6/2007	EMU	13	9
10/13/2007	Purdue	7	14
10/27/2007	Minnesota	3	7
11/17/2007	OSU	14	0
8/30/2008	Utah	16	9
9/6/2008	Miami (OH)	3	3
9/27/2008	Wisconsin	12	13
10/4/2008	Illinois	10	35
10/11/2008	Toledo	10	3
10/25/2008	MSU	14	21
11/15/2008	Northwestern	7	14
9/5/2009	WMU	0	7
9/12/2009	Notre Dame	31	3
9/19/2009	EMU	3	14
9/26/2009	Indiana	12	21
10/17/2009	Delaware St	3	3
10/24/2009	Penn St.	13	22
11/7/2009	Purdue	21	17
11/21/2009	OSU	14	7
9/4/2010	Connecticut	0	10
9/18/2010	Massachusetts	14	23
9/25/2010	Bowling Green	21	0
10/9/2010	MSU	3	31
10/16/2010	Iowa	21	17
11/6/2010	Illinois	52	13
11/20/2010	Wisconsin	14	34
9/3/2011	WMU	3	7
9/10/2011	Notre Dame	21	10
9/17/2011	EMU	0	3
9/24/2011	San Diego St	7	0
10/1/2011	Minnesota	0	0
10/29/2011	Purdue	0	14
11/19/2011	Nebraska	14	3
11/26/2011	OSU	17	17
9/8/2012	Air Force	10	15
9/15/2012	Massachusetts	0	13
10/13/2012	Illinois	0	0
10/20/2013	MSU	7	3
		694	623
			47.30%

Her endzone is slightly better, just under  over 47% of the points Michigan's opponents have scored have come in the South Endzone.
The only score I can't account for is the 4th quarter score by AJ Harris of Northern Illinois. I can't find any second half highlights from that game and mgoblue.com doesn't have a working link to the pdf of the play-by-play. So this is the best I can do for now dad.

Thanks to jiMpossible for finding the M-NIU Michigan Replay from 2005.

Boneg Ladder

No real shake-ups yet, but a little movement this weekend.  Here's what the Boneg Ladder looks like currently:

MI PSU OSU
IA NEB
MSU NU WI
IN MN IL PU

It is strange how 2 of the top 3 teams and 3 of the bottom 4 teams are all from the Leaders division.  That, of course, means the middle of the pack, other than Wisconsin, is made up of Legends teams.  It is also interesting that the top 2 teams in the Leaders are not eligible to be in the Boneg Championship Game.

Using the ladder as a predictor, M would only lose at OSU and would face 5-3 Wisconsin in the Boneg Championship Game.

M vs. MSU prediction based on historical data

M is 176-49-1 in all games I have attended (all data is for games I have attended unless otherwise mentioned)
M is 117-35-1 in conference games
M is 15-6 against MSU (MSU and OSU are tied for the most victories over M)
                      MSU is actually 7-15 in all games I have seen them play (1987 over Indiana)
M is 147-34-1in Michigan Stadium
M is 19-7 in the 5th game I have attended in a season (4-2 when facing MSU)
M is 39-15 against "State name" State University schools
M is 51-19-1 against "humanish" nicknames
M is 1-1 when ranked 23
M is 126-20-1 against unranked opponents
M is 43-9 with #16 as the starting QB
M is 10-3 in the game following Illinois

It's simple when you add it all up...


M 21 MSU 10

Michigan State Prediction

Michigan 30
MSU 16

Trophy Update - Guns Up

It certainly came as no surprise that the Mountaineer defense gave up 49 points to Texas Tech. But scoring only 14 means not only have Geno Smith's Heisman chances taken a hit - the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy has been lost as well.

This is the 3 time the Red Raiders have held the cup. In 1991 TT took the cup from Baylor, kept it with a follow-up victory over Houston then lost the next week to Oklahoma. They went trophy-less until Mike Leach's squad knocked off Texas in a last second victory in 2008. They held for a week with a blowout of Oklahoma State. But then got demolished by the Sooners again 56-20.

Good news Red Raider fans, Texas Tech lost to Oklahoma last week - so if they do lose the trophy to the Sooners, it won't be until 2013! There is, however, as rough stretch coming up for TT. There next 3 games are all against ranked opponents, 10/20 at TCU, 10/27 at Kansas St and 11/3 hosting Texas.

The entire remaining schedule is all in conference - and all those teams also only have conference games remaining - so the earliest Michigan could win the trophy would be in a bowl match-up - it would either be in a BCS forced match-up - seems unlikely that either a Big 12 school would get put into the Rose Bowl or that M would be a second BCS team from the boneg -the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl or Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl. Maybe a B12 team facing Notre Dame in a bowl could be the quickest path for a Michigan Trophy game.

Boneg Ladder

MI PSU IA OSU

NU MSU NEB

MN IN WI

IL PU

A few small changes, but the top 4 remain without a conference loss.  

Using this is as a predictor, M would only lose the OSU game and would finish 7-1 in the conference.  They would win the Hoke division and would likely face a bad team from the Hope division. 

With PSU and IA playing this week, there will be no more than 3 teams sitting on the top rung after Saturday. 

If PU beats OSU, the resulting jumble will include almost half of the league.  

MN and WI are playing to see who is tied for 8th best team in the league with Indiana.  

M's two conference wins are against the two teams on the bottom rung.  That's a little bit un-encouraging.  

M vs. Illinois prediction based on historical data

M is 175-49-1 in all games I have attended (everything is for games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 116-35-1 in conference games
M is 42-9 with #16 starting at QB
M is 22-5 in the 4th game (I've attended) in a particular season
M is 146-34-1 in games at Michigan Stadium
M is 34-2 in the first seen conference game of the seasonM is 2-0 when ranked #25M is 125-20-1 when their opponent is unranked 
M is 50-19-1 vs. opponents with "humanish" nicknames
M is 67-16 against "state name" University or University of "state name" schools
M is 19-4-1 against teams with school name and nickname starting with the same letter
M is 9-3-1 against Illinois
M is 2-1 when facing a particular team on homecoming for the 5th time

It's easy when you add it all up

M 45 I 24

Illinois Prediction

Michigan 38
Illinois 13

Trophy Update - Week 6

WVU followed up last week's shoot-out with another. The Mountaineers held off Texas 48-45. Their 5 game win streak as trophy holder matches Clemson's streak last season. The last team to win 6 straight was Alabama going from the 2010 BCS Championship game until they lost in early October to South Carolina.

WVU is currently a 4 point favorite over this week's opponent, Texas Tech. That seems low to me, but the Mountaineer defense certainly hasn't impressed.

I think WVU keeps the trophy for at least one more week - setting up a big showdown - likely for the conference championship, with Kansas State.

Every college football fan (ending NSFW)

The ending is the best part - but it is NSFW

Big Ten Ladder

Big Ten Ladder after games of 10/06/12 (top down method)

IA MI OSU PSU
MSU MN NEB NU PU
IN WI
IL

Predictions based on ladder (home field is tie breaker):
M will only lose to OSU and will finish 7-1 in conference (9-3 overall).  Clearly, that would be enough to win the Bo Schembechler division.  The qualifying member of the Mike White division would be Purdue with a 3-5 Boneg record.  Of course M would win the Boneg Championship Game and head to the Rose Bowl.

OSU's only loss would be to PSU
PSU's only conference loss would be to IA
IA's only conference loss would be to MI
MI's only conference loss would be to OSU.

M vs. Purdue prediction

I'll keep with my January prediction and pick a Michigan victory, although my confidence is not particularly high.

M was able to pull out a victory in West Lafayette 2 years ago with a team that was (hopefully) not as good as this one.

M has success on the ground and the defense shows up, finally causing some meaningful turnovers.

M 21 P 9

cover it live phone test

Purdue Prediction

Purdue 32
Michigan 29

This could be an OT game.

Trophy Update - week 5

Last Saturday WVU kept possession of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy in the highest scoring match-up in trophy history. The 133 points scored topped the previous record of 115 from Princeton's 115-0 trouncing of Virginia back in 1890.

Teams have combined to score more than 100 points on 9 times in 1455 games, West Virginia and their opponents have gone over 100 three times in their current trophy run (starting with their win over Clemson to take the trophy.)

The 63 points Baylor scored in a losing effort is also a new high for the loser of a trophy game. LSU  scored 48 in a multiple overtime loss to Arkansas in 2007. As some solace to Baylor LSU did go on to win the MNC that year...

As I discussed before the season started, WVU's game this week with Texas is perhaps their toughest thus far. Can the Texas offense score enough to take the trophy from the Mountaineers? Will the Longhorn defense force more incomplete passes than TD passes from Geno Smith?

We'll find out staring at 7pm Saturday night.

Live chat - M -ND game

M vs. Notre Dame Prediction

Back in January I predicted M would lose to Notre Dame. Unfortunately, nothing has really happened to change my opinion.

That being said, I will be surprised if it as easy a victory for the Irish as they had over MSU. I think M's offense has more options than MSU's does.

I think that the teams are pretty even and Michigan has gotten last minute wins the past 3 years. This one is at ND and it looks like it might be cool and rainy. Barring a substantial loss in the turnover battle, I would expect Michigan to keep it close. I just think their last minute magic has to run out sometime...

M 24 ND 27

Notre Dame Prediction

Notre Dame 31
Michigan 21

Massachusetts Prediction

Michigan 47
Massachusetts 8

M vs U Mass based on historical Data

M is 174-49-1 in all games I have attended (everything is for games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 26-1 in the 3rd game (I've attended) in a particular season
M is 41-9 with #16 starting at QB
M is 58-14 in non-conference games
M is 18-1 against schools from the Mountain West
M is 145-34-1 in games at Michigan Stadium
M is 6-1 when ranked #17 
M is 124-20-1 when their opponent is unranked 
M is 49-19-1 vs. opponents with "humanish" nicknames
M is 19-3 against schools from the original 13 colonies
M is 66-16 against "state name" University or University of "state name" schools
M is 18-4-1 against teams with school name and nickname starting with the same letter
M is 1-0 when playing a team that is representing a different conference than the previous time they played
M is 15-2 the game after scoring 31 points
M is 3-1 the game after giving up 25 points 

It's easy when you add it all up...

Michigan 45 - U Mass 7

Rich Rod or 1998

There is a lot of talk out there about how these first two games of 2012 are a reminder of RR circa 2010. Get blown out by a highly ranked team (Alabama = Wisconsin/Ohio State) and win a close game against a team M should be much better than (Air Force = Indiana/Illinois/Purdue). But this start kind of reminds me of the 1998 start and I'm not sure if that is better or worse.

In 1998 M was coming off an undefeated season and a share of the MNC. In 1997, Jim Hermann (with some minor help from Charles Woodson) had turned a defense that had been just OK under his predecessor (Greg Mattison) into the dominant defense in the country. Hermann won assistant coach of the year honors and was probably on his way to being Lloyd Carr's ultimate successor.

The 1998 season started with M giving up 36 points at Notre Dame and 38 to Syracuse. M had trouble stopping the Irish ground game as Jarious Jackson and Aubrey Denson led the Irish to 280 yards on the ground. Although turnovers and short field helped the Irish - allowing scores on 5 straight possessions was a drastic difference from the 1997 D for Michigan.

The next week Donovan McNabb pretty much did whatever he wanted against Hermann's D jumping out to a 24-0 lead before M made it close in garbage time 38-28.

Although no one on the 2011 defense had the national acclaim that Charles Woodson did in 1997. The losses along the D-line from team 132 seems to have affected the 2012 defense just as much.


The bight side is M went through 1998 as constantly being the highest ranked 2 loss team (as much a Michigan Tradition as any) and ended up with a 10-3 record, with a bowl win over an SEC school and a share of the conference title.

On the down side - Hermann's defenses were never anywhere near as good as the 1997 squad. This lead to his departure following the 2005 season and relative obscurity as a NFL position coach. Maybe Mattison isn't quite the genius we thought he was in 2011...

M vs. Air Force prediction based on historical data

M is 173-49-1 in all games I have attended (everything is for games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 21-6 in the 2nd game (I've attended) in a particular season
M is 40-9 with #16 starting at QB
M is 57-14 in non-conference games
M is 3-1 against schools from the Mountain West

M is 144-34-1 in games at Michigan Stadium

M is 7-0 when ranked #19
M is 123-20-1 when their opponent is unranked

M is 25-5 when facing teams with bird related nicknames
M is 4-0 in their head coach's 12th attended game
M is 18-4 against teams with head coaches whose last name starts with "C"
M is 4-3 in games following 20+ point losses (eight 20+ point losses in 223 games isn't bad.. although there has been 5 in the last 33)


It's easy when you add it all up...

M 45 Air Force 21

Prediction for Air Force

Michigan 36
Air Force 27

Trophy Update

WVU kept control of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy with a dominant 69-34 victory over intrastate rival Marshall. This follows their 70-33 victory in the Orange Bowl. WVU became the first team with consecutive 60+ point trophy games since Oklahoma topped 60 three strait in 2008. You have to go all the way back to Fordham in 1930 for a higher 2 game run (73-0 and 71-0). Fordham's next game was a 3-0 win.

I think James Madison is unlikely to hold the Mountaineers to that low a score.

Michigan vs. Alabama based on Historical Data

M is 173-48-1 in all games I have attended (everything is for games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 32-4 in the first gave (I've attended) in a particular season
M is 40-8 with #16 starting at QB
M is 57-13 in non-conference games
M is 5-1 against schools from the SEC
M is 29-14 in games away from Michigan Stadium
M is 8-1 when ranked #8 (including 1-0 vs Alabama)
M is 2-0 when their opponent is ranked #2
M is 18-3 when facing teams with nicknames that commonly include a color (Crimson Tide)
M is 14-5 when facing schools from the Confederacy
M is 5-4 when playing for the first time in a particular state
M is 3-1 when facing a coach coaching his second different team for the first time


It's easy when you add it all up...

Alabama 21
Michigan 13

Prediction for Season

7-5, with a win in a bowl.

Prediction for Alabama Game

Alabama 33
Michigan 13

Trophy Predictions 2012 - Historical Data

After looking at the CFRC and Point Spreads, I thought I would look at how the Trophy holder has done historically against each opponent. If the trends hold true - it looks good for WVU as they have a winning or at least .500 record against each opponent on their schedule.

WVU is 10-0 against Marshall
1-0 against Jame Madison
25-21-2 against Maryland
This will be their first match-up with Baylor
1-0 against Texas
1-0 against Texas Tech
1-1 against Kansas State
1-0 against TCU
2-1 against Oklahoma State
2-2 against Oklahoma
First match-up with Iowa State
1-0 against Kansas

What about the 1-1 and 2-2 records. Both games are in Morgantown, so WVU has the home field advantage if that would be the tie-breaker. Although it might be worth noting that they have never played at Kansas State or hosted Oklahoma in their previous meetings. So home field might not be the best indicator (if there were any anyway...)

What is the previous pattern? In 1930WVU beat KSU 23-7, then lost in the next season 19-0. That pattern would imply a WVU victory this season.

But maybe the Wildcats are on a streak. Lets look at how KSU followed up against the other teams the beat in 1931. In addition to beating WVU, KSU had victories over Pittsburg St, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, North Dakota St, Washburn and Wichita St in 1931 (this had to be one of their best seasons pre-Bill Snyder). In 1932, they beat Wichita St and Missouri, but lost to Kansas and Oklahoma. In 1934 the defeated Washburn. They have not faced Pittsburg St or ND St since the 1931 season. So KSU is 3-2 in their next game against teams they defeated in 1931. I might pencil this one in as a KSU win then, but lets look at WVU-OU first.

The Oklahoma pattern offers a couple options. The first match-up, in 1958, was a 47-14 Oklahoma victory. Twenty years later, the Billy Sims Sooners romped 52-10. In 1982, WVU chalked up a 41-27 victory. The most recent contest was the 2008 Fiesta Bowl when the RR-less Mountaineers surprised OU 48-28. Which pattern holds? Does WWLL repeat (WWLLWWLL)? or does the WVU "streak continue for the 3rd straight win? How many times has a team beaten Oklahoma 3 straight times?

Arkansas beat OU the first two times they met (1903 & 1909), but could not win the 3rd. Colorado twice had 2 game win streaks fail to reach 3 before going 8-0-1 from 1989-1999. Iowa St had one 2 game win streak (1960-61), but couldn't make it 3. Kansas has 3 separate 3-game (or more) win streaks against the Sooners (1903, 05, 09; 1922-26; 1995-97) against only 1 failed 2 gamer. KSU had 2 2-game streaks fail to reach 3 before winning 5 straight form 1993-97. The powerhouse Miami Hurricanes won 3 straight in the mid 80s (85-86-88). Missouri is 0-3 in attempts to win 3 straight. Nebraska is 6-3 going for the 3rd straight loss (not counting times going for greater than 3 in a row). Northwestern is currently on a 3 game win streak against the Sooners (don't tell Oklahoma!). Notre Dame won the first two games, then lost, and has now won 6 straight. Oklahoma St is 0-3 in 3 game attempts. USC has beaten OU 6 straight times. Texas is 8-2 in attempts at 3 straight Red River Rivalries. Texas A&M is 2-0.
Overall record for teams on 2 game win streaks against OU 25-18. So this looks like a WVU win.

Which brings us back to the KSU game. I did a lot of work on WVU-OU to say it doesn't matter since KSU would already have taken the trophy. But what else do I have to do?

If KSU does beat WVU they would then face Texas Tech - who they are 4-8 against. TTU would then take on Texas - unfortunately for the Red Raiders they are only 15-45 against the Longhorns.

Texas would beat Iowa State (8-1) and TCU (58-20-1) before losing to KSU (5-7 - Really?) - Based on their history, KSU should be 6-6 this season including an FCS victory, so I'm not sure if they would even make a bowl.

At least this path keeps the trophy out of the MNC game. So lets go with that - the Wildcats stay home over the holidays, but they get to enjoy the trophy until fall 2013.

Trophy Predictions for 2012 - point spreads

Previously I posted how the CFRC would predict the fate of the jiMpossible sarcasMike Trophy for 2012. Now we'll follow the path using point spreads from Beyond the Bets.

Again we start with WVU. They are favored by 21 over Marshall, 40.5 over James Madison, 21 over Maryland, and 14 over Baylor. They are 4 point underdogs against Texas.

Texas is a 4 point underdog against Oklahoma. So far the sharps are following the CFRC exactly.

OU is favored by 33 over Kansas, 10 over Notre Dame, 20 over Iowa State, 18.5 over Baylor, 2.5 over WVU, 9 over Oklahoma State and 3.5 over TCU.

So once again the Sooners take the trophy bowling. LSU is favored in every game this season, so again it looks like a repeat of the CFRC version. Oklahoma, LSU and the Trophy all meet in the Arroyo Seco.

Trophy Predictions for the 2012 season - CFRC

As you may remember West Virginia is the current holder of the jiMpossible-SarcasMike Trophy. Over the next few days we'll look at some potential outcomes for trophy this season.

First up the current CFRC:

WVU is ranked 17 so they beat Marshall (78), James Madison (FCS), Maryland (96), and Baylor (23) before losing on the road to Texas (18 - home field advantage).

Texas loses the Red River Rivalry to Oklahoma (4).

The Sooners should beat Kansas (104), Notre Dame (24), Iowa State (58), Baylor (23), and WVU (17) before squeaking by Oklahoma State (3 - home field advantage). They close out the regular season with a victory over TCU (16).

The teams ranked above Oklahoma are Alabama (1), LSU(2) and Oklahoma State(3). They've already beaten the Cowboys and it would seem an undefeated Oklahoma team would be selected for the MNC game over  a one-loss Alabama (lost at LSU) to face LSU. So the biggest trophy ends the season in the biggest game.

This years MNC game is in the Rose Bowl - no home field advantage for either team so LSU finishes the season undefeated and holds the trophy.

Next up we'll see what the odds-makers predict.

Jalen Rose wants the Banners up

Mary Sue Coleman was quoted in the Michigan Daily saying she doesn't think the banners removed from Crisler Arena (not Center) because of the Ed Martin scandal "will ever go back up."

Jalen Rose responded via tweet (apparently I'm not blocked anymore)


























I don't think there is much of a case for putting those banners back up. All those records/results have officially been vacated, so it would be ridiculous for M to reclaim NCAA finalist, NIT or Big Ten Tournament Champions again. The only way those banners should go back up is like this:



















To show the shame associated with those banners. So we never forget!