Rothstein and Birkett video

Here is vid by the Annarbor.com guys. It is short, but I think it sums up some things. Rothstein make a good point as to when/why the season went where it did.

Michigan Basketball

So far I've been very disappointed in the free throw shooting of this team. Last season I think they lead the conference (76%), Manny Harris shot 86%. So far this season the team is shooting only 69% and Manny is down to 70%. The weird part is their opposition has only shot 48% from the line so far.
Michigan should/would have beaten Creighton in regulation had they shot a decent percentage from the FT line.
I don't doubt this team is better than last year - they're starting a scholarship player at point guard for instance - but they're not good enough to give away points...

Michigan 75, Marquette 68

Updated 2010 prediction

M is currently #79 (dropped one spot with the OSU loss). That means M improved 18 spots from end of last season (not 40). I am still going to use 40 spots, because I want to be positive about next season. At # 39, here is what would happen (home field will be applied later.)

Conn #47 Win

ND #48 Win

Mass Win

Bowling Grn #74 Win

IND #89 Win

MSU #57 Win

Iowa #14 Loss

PSU #12 Loss

ILL #85 Win

PU #66 Win

WIS #32 Loss

OSU #9 Loss

That's 8-4.

Accounting for home field

Conn #47 Win

at ND #48 I have to count this as a loss

Mass Win

Bowling Grn #74 Win

at IND #89 Win

MSU #57 Win

Iowa #14 Loss

at PSU #12 Loss

ILL #85 Win

at PU #66 Win

WIS #32 This would be a win

at OSU #9 Loss

Again 8-4.

Again. I'll take it. ND could become a win by the time the season ends. We'll see if M moves much without playing. With last week's game moving M only one spot, I'm thinking it isn't likely there will be much movement.

CFRC

With 80 rankings, M is #80. That is significant because it means M is in the middle third of Div IA. One spot down and they reach the bottom third. Not only will it present drama as we see how the remaining games will effect M's position. But, also, it will be interesting on a day to day basis to see how the additional polls will change things.

I believe that the last couple weeks have seen M rise throughout the week as polls are added. We'll see how it goes. EXCITEMENT.

Remaining Season

By my estimate, there are about 80 more games involving Div IA football teams.

M is not playing in any of them.

An open letter to the idiot who sits behind us

Hello sir,

It was really funny how you got all passive aggressive with Jimpossible under your breath after he asked you to watch your language. "Don't hurt yourself sitting on your hands not cheering," was one of your lines. (in addition to calling him an "A^%%$^#" not quite under your breath)

The following are not examples of cheering:

• Teaching your grade school children to shout "You Suck" at the end of the 4th down Temptation (I will note that I don't recall hearing them ever yell it, so kudos to them on their good behavior.)
• Yelling "F-O...F-O" during OSU's O-H...I-O
• Oh so subtly yelling how "TY-relle" Pryor is not a "Pro-prospect" - especially after he gains 14 yards and a first down
  
• And what was the deal with "TY-relle?" I think there may be some latent racism there - you may want to look into that.
• Sarcastically yelling at OSU fans that you hope they don't kill themselves on the way home. Two points here - the majority of the fans leaving early (including you and your son) were Michigan fans, and really, hoping for injury of people who cheer for a different team than you, classy...
• Yelling the C word at two OSU college girls for singing that they "don't give a damn about the whole state of Michigan." Is that song so offensive that you have to stoop to that? (You're right you didn't do this yesterday, you did it 2 years ago, but I didn't have a blog then!)
• Telling an OSU fan "F%$* you" because he flipped you off - again after you told him you hope he got injured on the way home. Amazing how quiet you got when he asked you to come outside with him and settle it. Believe me NO ONE was going to be on your side of that fight.
• Booing OSUs band
• Yelling that about how their song (7 nation army-which the Stadium PA system has played all season and the M fans have "sung" to) has no words.
  
• Yelling about Buckeye fans only being able to spell words with 4 letters
• Yelling about a bad read by "TY-relle" causing a loss rather than actually cheering for the great play senior, Brandon Graham, in his final game made in his desperate attempt to somehow give Michigan a victory.

In fact in the 3 seasons you've sat behind us, I don't ever remember you cheering FOR Michigan, but rather screaming AGAINST the opposition. Why does belittling them make you feel better? Especially when so many times over these 3 years (probably more so than any 3 years in your lifetime), Michigan has needed the fans cheering loudly FOR them!

We received a letter from the ticket department, explaining that it is likely our seats will move up or down a few rows. Here are my two main wishes:

• I hope we move 5 rows in the opposite direction you do, putting us 8-9 rows apart
• And I hope you get moved a few seats to the left so you're right next to the opposition fans. Either your cowardly nature will shut you up, or they will physically.

Sincerely,

sarcasMike (but in all honesty, no sarcasm here - you're an idiot)

Jamie Morris on Harbaugh

From MVictors a link to Jamie Morris being interviewed on a Columbus station. He seems to be taking back a lot of the things he said about Harbaugh. And not really saying RR will still be here with a loss to OSU.

That is really surprising to me. I can't help but read it as him waffling because of the likelihood of Harbaugh coming here soon...

M - OSU replays on ESPN classic and BTN

Here's a photo from the 1939 M-OSU game that isn't being rebroadcast on ESPN or BTN

So far I've watched parts of the 1995 game, the 1979 game and the 1977 game.

Potentially interesting tidbits:

Entering the 1979 game M was ranked 122 out of the 139 1-A teams in net punting. How were there 139 1A teams in 1979??

In the 1977 game they showed video introductions of the offensive starters in the first series of the first half and just had graphics of the defensive starters; then reversed it in the 2nd half. I'd forgotten they used to do that - I think they should bring that back. Why does espn do that stupid thing where they only show the "game breakers" and only scroll the full starters at the top?

Apparently Woody Hayes got bumped by someone prior to the start of the 1977 game. Bill Fleming asked him about it at halftime - live on camera - and he kind of shrugged it off like he didn't feel anything. Of course later in the game he tried to punch an ABC cameraman after a Rod Gerald fumble.

M got badly out gained in the 1977 game. Now that I think about it I remember my mom saying that was payback for the several years in the mid 70s when M out gained OSU but lost. You go Alice!

Form the 1995 game, what was the deal with the uniform numbers? Biakabatouka's 2 and 1 are so far apart - weird! I had forgotten how close that game got. Looking back I thought M was always in control. But they had to grind out a couple drives at the end and still had the Woodson interception to seal it at the end.

I have the 1999 game set up on the DVR tomorrow. I honestly do not remember anything about that game. I see M won 24-17, interesting...

Michigan vs OSU prediction based on historical data

M is 159-42-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless specifically mentioned)
M is 133-30-1 in games played at Michigan Stadium
M is 8-5 against OSU - the 5 losses to OSU is the most to any one team (8-4 at Michigan Stadium)
M is 3-0 when facing a team for the 14th time
M is 111-30-1 against conference opponents
M is 7-1 when unranked facing a ranked opponent
M is 3-1 against the 9th ranked team (0-1 vs. OSU)
M is 8-0 when facing a coach for the 5th time
M is 84-22 on artificial surface
M is 25-7-1 in the final home game of the year
M is 9-7 against teams with non animal kingdom (includes humans) based nicknames
M is 3-3 when my dad has been on the field prior to kickoff (3-0 when he attends the same game with a blood relative)
M is 2-1 in their head coaches last game (just in case...)

Although the numbers seem to point one way, I don;t think I can agree...

M 17
OSU 42

Very Early Prediction for 2010

During the last offseason, I used the CFRC to predict M's season. If you recall, made the assumption that, best case scenario, M would improve by 40 CFRC positions (1/3 of Div I-A). With that, I came up with a prediction of either 6-6 and a bowl loss or 5-7.

I know the season isn't over yet, but I decided to look forward to next season (for obvious reasons) and do it again.

M is currently #78. That means M improved 19 spots (not 40). I am still going to use 40 spots, because I want to be positive about next season. At # 38, here is what would happen (home field will be applied later.

Conn #52 Win

ND #39 Win

Mass Win

Bowling Grn #79 Win

IND #83 Win

MSU #51 Win

Iowa #14 Loss

PSU #16 Loss

ILL #86 Win

PU #74 Win

WIS #21 Loss

OSU #9 Loss

That's 8-4.

Accounting for home field

Conn #52 Win

at ND #39 That would be a loss

Mass Win

Bowling Grn #79 Win

at IND #83 Win

MSU #51 Win

Iowa #14 Loss

at PSU #16 Loss

ILL #86 Win

at PU #74 Win

WIS #21 This would be a win

at OSU #9 Loss

Again 8-4.

I will try to do this throughout the rest of the season and finally after the bowls are played. I expect M to drop a little after this weekend, then it will be interesting to see where everyone else moves. Wisconsin, with a good bowl victory could move high enough for me to take that home field win out. Other than that, I don't see any change in the predictions. We'll see.

OSU Prediction

OSU 31
M 19

I have hope M will keep in the game awhile. I just don't think, even with emotion, that M can win.

jiM

A brief summary of what I am thinking.

There are two things that surprise me about this whole RR thing. The first is how vehement the RR supporters are. I understand vehemence in the anti-RR crew. Firing is an aggressive thing to do and being aggressive in discussing it is not unusual. But, those who are supporting RR are just as aggressive and insulting to the other side, etc. It is amazing.

The second thing is that I really want him gone. I don't know if I want him fired, or as you said are hoping for minimal punishment, but enough to have to let him go, or what, but I really don't want him at M anymore. I don't know when I started not liking him, but I know it was prior to the first game last year. I think what disappoints me most about my feelings about it is NOT that I am not supporting M by not supporting the coach (as many people say), but I can't say for sure that I would feel the same way if he was finishing his second 9-3 season. Hopefully, I would.

But, of course, he isn't 18-6. He is 8-15. And I am not convinced he is ever going to bring this program to the promised land of challenging for BCS Championships every year. But as Sam and Ira say, we don't know where it is going from here, RR stay or go. WHICH IS ANOTHER THING about him. Why can we not know this? If nearly anyone else had been hired, we would likely know this. I'm not saying things would be a lot better, but I do think they would be better. And I think the reason why is simple. RR is stubborn.

There was an MGoBlog paragraph mentioning another blog or something (I think) talking about how you have to buy in 100% to the spread system or you just have a bad offense running some bad spread option plays. I know that is one of the excuses pro RR people use to account for last year. You have to buy into it 100%, can't use a hybrid system, etc. etc. For argument purposes, I will assume that the spread is that kind of offense (though I don't know if I buy it). If that really is the case, unless RR or any other coach was a 100% lock, we should have avoided this kind of spread coach (from what I understand, the Brian Kelly spread is more straight forward running rather than the option game). If it was going to be such a specialist type of system, why would we do it? We know we can get talent. We just need a coach to take advantage of it (the big criticism of Lloyd). Why would we need to have a coach that needs to be doing something DIFFERENT, too? (we wouldn't have tried a triple option offense, would we?) Maybe the answer there is that they COULDN'T get anyone else. Martin may have really messed up on that one.

I heard from more than one place (and one source had it come from a college coach) that it is an easier transition from spread to pro-style than the other way. So, the growing pains into RR should have been seen. Also, that should alleviate some of the growing pains back the other way if someone, say Harbaugh, would come over.

Speaking of a transition like that, I know that there isn't a typical pro-style QB on the roster (well, a good one), but if a Harbaugh (for example) came next year, he would find a way to use the QBs. I think he would use his imagination to do things with other players, etc. He might even run some wildcat. Why didn't RR use his imagination? It really was "let's run the spread' all the time. Even the trickiest trick plays for RR seem less tricky than something Lloyd would do. I don't get it.

Even though I am saying all of this, I know that it is safer to NOT fire him. Even though I don't think he is going to improve significantly during his time at M, if you fire him and the firing is wrong, it is much worse than if you keep him and that is wrong. We are a near .500 team. The wrong replacement may go down from there.

And, if Karsch is right, and I think that he is, if Harbaugh were hired, or Miles or maybe a few other coaches with M connections that coach would get a longer time to turn things around than RR, mainly because he would be an M man.

And going back to the transition, I think the transition would be smoother with any M man because there would be some return to the M traditions. Most importantly, I think yearlong captains need to come back. Enough said on that or I'll be accused of being an old fuddy-duddy.

I heard someone say that M fans don't have the patience to be a Nat Champ contender. That made me say to myself, "we shouldn't have to...". We weren't that far from a Nat Champ. 9-4, with a couple close games is only a couple games and a couple plays away. 3-9 is a little farther. Really how long DO we have to wait for RR to bring M to a BCS bowl? Can the RR supporters guarantee in his 5th year? That is the soonest I see it now. And I don't expect it then.

I understand RR has had some personnel issues on this team. I'll give him some slack for last year, but the D is so bad this season, there had to be a way to fix that. He has had two recruiting classes and there was an entire offseason to make moves of O players to D if that is what was necessary (he thinks it is now). I just don't think that the team's talent level is worse than Indiana (almost lost at home), Illinois and PU. I may be wrong, of course, but that is how I see it.

Also, I am tired of the excuse of 3 D coordinators in 3 years. SO? All DCs teach that players should do fundamentals. Maybe the 4th one should emphasize it more.

The latest report on the self-reporting issue was interesting in that there is a lot of interpretation of what it means. Mistakenly, I listened to Sam and Ira and they (surprise) think it shows that someone from the inside leaked that report to the Freep which led to the big Freep story before the season. Though this may be true, why didn't the Uni say something about it the day the Freep story came out. "We know about the allegations. We did our own report on portions of what the Free Press story mentions." etc. And if that report was out there and RR still had his crying press conference, something seems a little insincere.

I believe that there could have been someone from inside leaking something. One thing M has been fortunate about in the past million years is that the insiders (the athletic dept staff, former players with influence, rich alums) have generally been on the same page on the football coach. Even when there were some Lloyd haters out there, I never heard anything about an insider wanting him to be fired. But, with RR, that has changed. From before he was hired, there was a split (remember the Les Miles fiasco) and since his hire and especially since the bad record there is a canyon. In the long run, how can you consider keeping him. That split will always be there. It will be very difficult to be successful when you don't have everyone on the same page.

I like to listen to Karsch and Anderson when it comes to M stuff. It appears that Karsch likes RR, which is understandable, he does a lot of work with him, but he isn't so blind as to think RR will last past this season, even if there is no NCAA punishment.

My ultimate hope at this time would be for M to be putting out feelers right now. Harbaugh would be my first choice. I don't know why other than I think he is a Michigan man, he has shown he can win, and I would hope that watching him coach would bring that feeling I used to get when I watched him play. If they get a bite, then I say cut the losses on RR, and start over. I don't care what it costs (they'll pay what they need, anyhow). I don't care how many of RR's WRs leave. I only care about caring. About M football. And feeling excited about Saturday, not because I'm going to go to Fleetwood Diner, but because there is a good football game.

This Saturday there is not. And RR is the main one to blame (I think I wrote something similar last year)

I will cheer for his teams as long as he is here. I hope that isn't too long.

Practice Time Scandal

I'll start this by saying, I want Michigan to succeed, therefore I want RR to succeed. Part of the problem if I were to admit he's not likely to turn things around next year so maybe he should be fired now (not that I'm quite ready to say that) - is the havoc this would reap on the program. More kids leaving, another coaching search, players that might not fit the next guy's system, Michigan didn't give him time, etc...

As strange as it sounds, if the "practice scandal" is enough to get him fired, it would at least alleviate the "M didn't give him a chance" problem, and potentially keep some of the players in the program as well - they could also blame RR for their losses.

Obviously, if this were to occur, I'd somehow want the scandal to be enough to get him fired yet not enough to elicit any "real" punishment from the NCAA. What would I do to my database regarding forfeited wins? Also, we'd need to have a coach basically already signed. And I think that coach needs to be Jim Harbaugh.

Something to shoot for this week

If my computation (addition in my head) is correct, M has scored 35 more points than has allowed this season (thanks Delaware St.). Though I don't want to be getting toward the end of the game cheering hard for OSU to not get that late TD to win by 5 TDs, we all know it is a possibility.

Why is this important? M hasn't had consecutive years where the opponent outscored them since 1958-1959. And we know this team likes to break streaks.

Early prediction
OSU 51
M 17
woo hoo!!!

Some more history

M's record for season following a losing season (adjusted for 12 game schedule with bowl): 8-5
M's record for season following two consecutive losing seasons (adjusted blah blah): 10-3
M coaches record in 3rd season at M (adjusted): 11-2
M coaches improvement (in wins) from 2nd season to 3rd season at M: just over 1 game

Comparing RR to the past

So, I decided to do a little research and look at what has happened to teams who were in similar situations as M is now. Specifically, what happens when a team with a winning record changes coaches and then goes two years with a losing record (yeah, I know I am jumping the gun by one week). I figured I would go back 20 years and see what happened.

I'm not sure whether I figure this will be a way to predict what will happen next year (though that is what I'm going to do) or whether it will give us an idea of whether RR will survive another 2 seasons, etc., but I thought it would be interesting to do a comparison and see what then happens with the program and how long the coach lasts at the uni.

I'm not counting 6-6 as a winning record or a losing record

Only I-A teams are being checked. For teams that have changed to I-A recently, I'm only using I-A info.

Army
1990, 6-5, Jim Young
1991, 4-7, Bob Sutton
1992, 5-6, Bob Sutton
After 1992, Army went 6-5, then went 5 of then next 6 without a winning record. In 1996, Army pulled out a 10-2 season.
Result: 3rd season 6-5, one game better than prior season. Coach lasted for 9 seasons.

Colorado
2005, 7-6, Gary Barnett, Mike Hankwitz
2006, 2-10 Dan Hawkins
2007, 6-7 Dan Hawkins
After 2007, Colorado went 5-7 and is currently3-7
Result: 3rd season 5-7, 1 1/2 games worse than prior season. Coach lasted at least 4 seasons.

Duke
1989, 8-4, Steve Spurrier
1990, 4-7, Barry Wilson
1991, 4-6-1, Barry Wilson
Wilson only lasted 4 seasons, his best record in 1991
Result: 3rd season, 2-9, 2 1/2 games worse than the previous season. Coach lasted 4 seasons

East Carolina
1991, 11-1, Bill Lewis
1992, 5-6, Steve Logan
1993, 2-9, Steve Logan
ECU went 7-5 the next year, having winning seasons 6 out of the next 7 years
Result: 3rd season, 7-5, 4 1/2 games better than previous season. Coach lasted 11 seasons

Georgia Tech
1991, 8-5, Bobby Ross
1992, 5-6 Bill Lewis
1993, 5-6, Bill Lewis
Lewis didn't finish the 1-10 1994 season
Result: 3rd season, 1-10, 4 games worse than previous season. Coach lasted less than 3 seasons

Houston
1999, 7-4, Kim Helton
2000, 3-8, Dana Dimel
2001, 0-11, Dana Dimel
Dimel went 5-7 in his 3rd and final season at Houston
Result: 3rd season, 5-7, 4 1/2 games better than previous season. Coach lasted 3 seasons

Idaho
1999, 7-4, Chris Tormey
2000, 5-6 Tom Cable
2001, 1-10, Tom Cable
Idaho increased their win total by one each of the next two seasons
Result: 3rd season, 2-9, one game better than previous season. Coach lasted 4 seasons

Kentucky
2002, 7-5, Guy Morriss
2003, 4-8, Rich Brooks
2004, 2-9, Rich Brooks
After a 3rd losing season Brooks has had winning records every year since.
Result: 3rd season, 3-8, one game better than previous season. Coach last at least 7 seasons

Memphis
1994, 6-5, Chuck Stobart
1995, 3-8, Rip Scherer
1996, 4-7, Rip Scherer
Scherer Never had a winning record with Memphis
Result: 3rd season, 2-9, 2 games worse than previous season. Coach lasted 6 seasons.

New Mexico
1997, 9-4, Dennis Franchione
1998, 3-9, Rocky Long
1999, 4-7, Rocky Long
It took Long a couple more years to reach a winning record, but he has had all but 2 since then.
Result: 3rd season, 5-7, 1/2 game better than previous season. Coach lasted at least 12 seasons

Ohio
2000, 7-4, Jim Grobe
2001, 1-10, Brian Knorr
2002, 4-8, Brian Knorr
After the 4th year of a bad team, Knorr was gone.
Result: 3rd season, 2-10, two games worse than previous season. Coach lasted 4 seasons

Rice
1993, 6-5, Fred Goldsmith
1994, 5-6, Ken Hatfield
1995, 2-8, Ken Hatfield
Hatfield went on for a long time with Rice enjoying a handful of winning seasons
Result: 3rd season, 7-4, 4 1/2 games better than previous season. Coach lasted 12 seasons

San Jose State
2000, 7-5, Dave Baldwin
2001, 3-9, Fitz Hill
2002, 6-7, Fitz Hill
After 4 bad seasons, Hill was gone
Result: 3rd season, 3-8, 2 games worse than previous season. Coach lasted 4 seasons

Stanford
2001, 9-3, Ty Willingham
2002, 2-9, Buddy Teevens
2003, 4-7, Buddy Teevens
Another 4-7 season is all Teevens had
Result: 3rd season, 4-7, same as previous season. Coach lasted 3 seasons

TCU
1991, 7-4, Jim Wacker
1992, 2-8-1, Pat Sullivan
1993, 4-7, Pat Sullivan
A couple good years and a couple bad followed
Result: 3rd season, 7-5, 2 1/2 games better than previous season. Coach lasted 6 seasons

Wake Forest
1992, 8-4, Bill Dooley
1993, 2-9, Jim Caldwell
1994, 3-8, Jim Caldwell
One winning season for Caldwell
Result: 3rd season, 1-10, 2 games worse than previous season. Coach lasted 8 seasons

Wyoming
1999, 7-4, Dana Dimel
2000, 1-10, Vic Koenning
2001, 2-9, Vic Koenning
Another 2 win season and Vic was gone.
Result: 3rd season, 2-10, 1/2 game worse than previous season. Coach lasted 3 seasons

I could do a lengthy analysis, but I don't want to. Instead I will just do averages

Average 3rd season (based on 12 game regular season): 4-8
Average change from 2nd to 3rd season: 0 games (less than 1/6 of a game better than the previous season)
With the above, and knowing the M has a I-AA school on the schedule next year, 5-7 is my early prediction.

Average length of time the coach stays (will add a couple years for active coaches): 6 years (adding the years for active coaches didn't change the rounded off average)

I don't think 5-7 will keep RR here for 6 years, so something above has to give.

Now, my in-depth analysis: If history is any indication, it doesn't look good.

Beef

So, you're down 11 and your offense has shown that it can move the ball downfield in its own kind of ball control O. The opponent kicks off to you and your returner decides to come out of the ned zone and gets it only to the 15. What kind of plays should you run? The kinds that made your last drive successful? NOOOOOO. A BOMB!!

Incomplete, of course.

2nd and 10, gain of one on a scramble
3rd down, a good scramble called back on an illegal block
3rd down and long, a LOOOOOONNGGG bomb again (why not?). Interception.

If the KO return was to the 25-35, the long bomb on first would have been OK. But, starting in the hole and doing it? Huh?
And what happened to the success of the last drive?
Remember, the D is stopping nothing so getting points or at least keeping the ball is going to be hugely beneficial.

Things like that, and they happen every game, is why I dislike RR's play calling.

Wisconsin Prediction

I don't feel like putting a lot of thought into this prediction, so I won't. I have yet to see a prediction that M will win, so maybe I can be the first to do it. Nope.

Wis 38 M 20

I want to personally thank RR and the M football team for (hopefully temporarily) sucking my love for college football out of me.

when it rains it pours and Wisconsin game prediction

Now we hear the rumors that Forcier is considering transferring and he's not starting this weekend. BrianGoBlog makes it sound like he's got some minor suspension thingy and will still play the majority of the game.
IMO Forcier has played pretty well this season. He's certainly made some mistakes. But I feel the majority have been "I can get away with these because I'm better than you" mistakes not "I don't know what I'm doing" or "I'll never be better than this" mistakes.
It would be a set back, both for the program and for RR, if Forcier were to transfer. As a Michigan fan I hope Gardiner is the equivalent of 2005 Vince Young or 2008 Colt McCoy, but I think that is a stretch for a true freshman.

As for the game Saturday, I hope I'm wrong, but:

Badgers 35
Wolverines 17

Rodrig

I think Jeremy's comments below from the WCBN Blog sums up my opinions about the RR thing. I don't think I'd be so negative in the delivery (maybe I am, actually), but I think he is probably the best coach for now, but I don't expect big things in the future. (I'm not really sure why Jeremy brought up the players that left the first year)

Of course, that doesn't answer the question of WHO would be better than RR in the next few years.

I'm still sticking with the prediction that RR will last 6 years and leave on his own.

Jeremy: .....Do I think Rich Rodriguez should be fired following a 5-7 season? I'm indifferent. I have no doubt that Rich Rodriguez is the best coach for the 2010 team, so a large part of me wants to see what he'll do with the roster that he has crafted and the system that he has put in place. At the same time, I have zero faith that Rich Rodriguez will meet out expectations of building a championship program (needless to say, Michigan MUST compete for a Big Ten title next year and, at the very least, MUST be playing on January 1st, 2011). And why should I? After Michigan beat Florida in the Capital One Bowl with Rich Rodriguez on the sidelines, the 2008 team was supposed to be led by Ryan Mallett, Mario Manningham, Adrian Arrington, Justin Boren, etc. They all left. Rodriguez struck out on Pryor, and was too stubborn to fit the system around his quarterback(s). The team, as it was constituted in week one of 2008, was supposed to be a six-win team (although many at WCBN predicted that the team would win seven or eight games). Michigan lost to Toledo (3-9), Purdue (4-8), and Northwestern (at home) and finished the season 3-9. This year, Michigan was supposed to take a step forward, certainly play in a bowl game, and compete with the middle of the Big Ten. Michigan has one Big Ten win and is in danger of missing a Bowl game for the second consecutive year. Rich Rodriguez has yet to prove to me that he can meet expectations--let alone exceed them. So fire him, keep him, whatever. Just please tell me that this school has a contingency plan when it's time to begin competing for a national championship again.

SarcasMike Playoff Vol 2

This week requires more manipulation. Here's the rules.

Starting with the initial rankings we would have (assumptions are Iowa is BigTen Champ, Florida is SEC champ):

16 Troy @ 1 Florida; 9 USC @ 8 LSU; 13 Oregon @ 4 TCU; 12 Pitt @ 5 Cincinnati; 2 Alabama @ 15 CMU; 10 Iowa @ 7 Georgia Tech; 14 Houston @ 3 Texas; 11 OSU @ 6 Boise St

Problems are non conference champ LSU hosting and Pitt and Cincy meeting in the opening round. I think the best adjustment is:

16 Troy
@ 1 Florida

8 LSU
@ 10 Iowa

13 Oregon
@ 4 TCU

11 OSU
@ 5 Cincinnati

14 Houston
@ 3 Texas

12 Pitt
@ 6 Boise St

9 USC
@ 7 Ga Tech

2 Alabama
@ 15 CMU

Bubbleburst teams are Miami (FL), Utah, Arizona, PSU. Again I don't feel any of those teams are so deserving to take away Troy/CMU/Houston's autobid.

I think you have only 3 games with greater than a TD point spread. USC , possibly Oregon and Pitt would be favorites.

Data

I just subscribed to our blog using my Google reader and I was the only person who has subscribed. It mentioned there are 12.6 posts per week.

Building on your positives

Here are some reasons why M could beat Wisconsin

M beat them last year with a worse offense and a similarly bad defense
Minor could run for 150 yards
The weather might be warmish and Forcier anecdotally plays better in better weather
Because Brandon Graham deserves better
Michigan fared much better (8 points) in their first 2 losses then Wisconsin (28 points) did in theirs.
RR is 1-0 as M coach when playing in CST
Wisconsin's running game may not take advantage of Michigan's safety and linebacker coverage problems - only their angle and tackling problems
Big Ten officials are pretty bad, who knows what they'll come up with this week...

ESPN Bowl Predictions Vol 11

Well, ESPN has caught on to Michigan's plight. Both experts have dropped M off their bowl predictions.

Week	Schlabach	Feldman
Pre	Champs	PapaJohns
1	Alamo	Alamo
2	Outback	Outback
3	Cap One	Outback
4	Outback	Outback
5	Champs	Champs
6	Alamo	Champs
7	Champs	Champs
8	Insight	Champs
9	Pizza	Champs
10	None	None

And the overall conference rankings are:

Place	Schlabach	Change	Feldman	Change
1	OSU	+2	OSU	+2
2	Iowa	-1	Iowa	-1
3	PSU	-1	PSU	-1
4	Wisconsin	0	Minnesota	+3
5	Minnesota	+1	MSU	+1
6	Northwestern	+1	Wisconsin	-2
7	MSU	-2	Northwestern	+2

Schlabach doesn't even have the Big Ten filling all its openings since he has Iowa also making a BCS bowl. They again both have Texas in the BCS championship game with Schlabach picking Alabama and Fedlman taking Florida as their opponent.

Purdue game

My quick analysis of the M-PU game.

The Positives:
-Roundtree caught a lot of passes
-KO returns were consistently good
-Olesnavage kicked a 50+'er
-Mesko had a great punt at a clutch time
-The Offense didn't fold when things were starting to look bad for the team (unlike the last two weeks)
-The weather looked nice
-More evidence that the Stevie Brown position switch was the correct decision
-Minor showed again that he is the best back on the team

The Negatives:
(I didn't see any negatives)

Playoffs

I'm not going to go into the specifics of the selection process, but the basic philosophy is that the higher up you are in your conference (in the rankings, not the actual standings; i'm not taking the time to look at all of that), the more likely you are to make the playoffs over a team that is higher rated, but lower in their own conference. For example, a 4th place team in the SEC ranked #15 is less likely to make the field than a CUSA conference champ at #22. That is the basic idea.

With this, a conference champ ranked #22 or above would get an auto bid. It is more likely that #30 would probably get you in. Unfortunately, CMU at #38 doesn't get in.

The tourney would be a basic 16 team, with the CFRC rankings being indicating seeds. Because of the low number of total college games played, I decided that rematches would be avoided until the last possible chance, so if a team is scheduled to play someone they played during the regular season, there would be some re-seeding (to benefit the higher seed, if possible) to avoid that contest until the finals, if possible. This means it is possible for two teams in the same conference to meet in the first round..if they didn't play each other during the season.

Home field for first two rounds (that is an idea you got right)

Currently the lineup is as follows

16 OK ST AT 1 FL
9 GTU AT 8 IA

13 VTU AT 4 ORE
12 PITT AT 5 TCU

15 HOU AT 2 TX
10 PSU AT 7 CIN

14 USC AT 3 AL
11 LSU AT 6 BOISE ST.
______

Using the RRG (random representative game)Prediction System, the following could happen

FIRST ROUND
FL OVER OK ST
IA OVER GTU (HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE IS THE DIFFERENCE)

ORE OVER VTU
PITT OVER TCU

TX OVER HOUSTON
CIN OVER PSU (HOME FIELD IS THE DIFFERENCE)

USC OVER ALA
BOISE STATE OVER LSU


SECOND ROUND
FL OVER IA
ORE OVER PITT IN A CLOSE ONE

TX OVER CIN
USC OVER BOISE ST IN A CLOSE ONE


SEMIFINALS
ORE OVER FL
TX OVER USC

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
ORE OVER TX IN DOUBLE OT

Mike's playoff, played off

I took your tourney field (I didn't have enough time to figure my own) and used a system where I took the teams games as typical games, randomly chose which one of those would be represented in a game in the playoffs, compared a random game for the other team and came up with the results (recent games are more weighted). I haven't figured out a good way to do points, so I just picked winners:

First Round
1 FL over 16 Troy
8 Ore over 9 LSU
5 Cin over 12 USC
13 Pit over 4 IA
3 ALA over 14 Hous
6 TCU over 11 PSU
7 Boise St over 10 Ga Tech
2 Tx over 15 CMU

Second Round
Fl over ORe. The home field was the difference here.
Cin over Pitt
ALA over TCU
Tx over Boise in a close one.

Third round
Cin over Fl. That even surprised me.
Ala over TX.

Final
Al over Cin

That is how it would play out (this time)

PU Prediction

As I mentioned, every time I have sold my home tickets (since 1999), the game has been a blowout. This time, though, I will be watching from outside of SE Michigan, so...

M 29
PU 26

Clinch a bowl game. Things will be looking up

Preliminary scores for Wisconsin 31-23 and OSU 26-25. (both losses)

Why am I so confident M can stay with those two teams? I don't know

Preliminary score for Little Caesars bowl: CMU 28, M 25

cfrc

Currently, M is #65 (from #44 last week). That would take M out of a 64 team playoff. I guess they could be in the play-in game against Kansas St.

PU is #74. Predicted record would be 6-6.

M vs Purdue prediction based on historical data

M is 159-41-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless specifically mentioned)
M is 133-29-1 in games played at Michigan Stadium
M is 9-2 against Purdue (9-0 at Michigan Stadium)
M is 6-2 when facing a team for the 12th time
M is 111-29-1 against conference opponents
M is 14-8 when unranked facing an unranked opponent
M is 12-5 against the 5th different head coach I have seen for a specific opponent
M is 30-6 against teams with head coaches whose first names end in "y" or "ie"

It is simple when you add it all up:

M 35
PU 27

PU Band

In honor of our opponent this week, here is the Tube Cadence and Band Cheer by the Purdue University "All-American" Marching Band

SarcasMike NCAA Football playoff 2009 version 1

I think we're finally far along enough in the season to track teams in my hypothetical NCAA Football playoff.

Here are the ground rules:

• All 11 conference champs make the 16 team field.
• The remaining at-large teams are selected based on BCS ranking.
• Notre Dame (or any independent) makes the field if they have a BCS ranking of 20 or better.
• No intra-conference match-ups in the opening round
• First two rounds are held at campus sites
• Only conference champs can host an opening round match-up

Here's the playoff potential for this week:

16 Troy @ 1 Florida

9LSU @ 8 Oregon

12 USC @ 5 Cincinnati

13 Pittsburgh @ 4 Iowa

3 Alabama @ 14 Houston

11 Penn St @ 6 TCU

10 Georgia Tech @ 7 Boise St

15 CMU @ 2 Texas

14 of the top 16 BCS ranked teams make this playoff. Only CMU and Troy are not in the top 16 of the BCS. Utah and Ohio State are the two teams that would have their bubbles burst. I don't have any issues with them being left out. Notre Dame is currently ranked 22. So they may be knocking someone else out in the future.

Alabama is the only higher seed playing on the road. They'll make their case to be at home if they make it to the SEC championship game.

I think the majority of these games would have relatively close point spreads. Only the top 2 seeds would likely be large favorites.

ESPN Bowl Predictions vol 10

Full ESPN Bowl Predictions here

I think Feldman missed that M lost, I don;t know how he can keep them in the Champs bowl - essentially the 5th best team.

Week	Schlabach	Feldman
Pre	Champs	PapaJohns
1	Alamo	Alamo
2	Outback	Outback
3	Cap One	Outback
4	Outback	Outback
5	Champs	Champs
6	Alamo	Champs
7	Champs	Champs
8	Insight	Champs
9	Pizza	Champs

Not many changes in the overall conference rankings either.

Place	Schlabach	Change	Feldman	Change
1	Iowa	0	Iowa	0
2	PSU	0	PSU	0
3	OSU	0	OSU	0
4	Wisconsin	+1	Wisconsin	0
5	MSU	-1	Michigan	0
6	Minnesota	+2?	MSU	0
7	NU	0	Minnesota	0
8	Michigan	-2	Indiana	+1
9			NU	-1

This week both "experts" have the same 10 teams in the BCS games including both having Texas-Florida in the championship game.

Summary

I'm tired of the way M is playing. I'm tired of not having high expectations. I'm tired of people calling for RR to be fired. I'm tired of people saying RR needs to be here at least 4 years. I'm tired of the piped in music. I'm tired of the song selection by the band. I'm tired of the stupid people in our section. I'm tired of the weather. I'm tired of Tate Forcier not being as good as he was against ND. I'm tired of everyone saying Drob should play more. I'm tired of the OLine looking bad. I'm tired of the walk-ons playing like walk-ons. I'm tired of people complaining about the walk-ons. I'm tired of the long bathroom lines at the stadium. etc. etc. etc.

In Summary...

First drives vs all others under RR

I got the feeling that M seems to have a very good first drive, but then tapers off under RR.

Opponent	First drive result
WMU	TD
ND	Punt
EMU	FG
Indiana	TD
MSU	FG
Iowa	TD
DelSt	TD
PSU	TD
Illinois	TD
Utah	Punt
Miami	TD
ND	TO
Wis	TO
Illinois	Missed FG
Toledo	Punt
PSU	TD
MSU	Punt
Purdue	Punt
Minn	FG
NorthW	Missed FG
OSU	Missed FG

M scores on 52.38% Pct of first drives, when you add the 3 missed FGs as somewhat of a sign of success you get a 66.67% rate on opening drives.

After that M is not nearly as successful:

success	# drives
4	10
7	12
6	12
4	13
3	12
3	13
8	11
1	13
2	11
4	15
2	11
3	13
3	15
4	13
2	11
3	12
3	15
5	12
6	10
1	13
1	15

28.63% success for the remainder of drives. M has been particularly bad on opening drives of the 2nd half. Scoring on only 1 of 21 attempts for a 4.76% success rate. There is a missed FG in there and 2 turn over on downs that would lead me to think they had some success moving down the field. At the best this could be 4/21 of for 19.05%.

Obviously I have no previous data to compare this to, but it seems odd that there would be such a difference between opening drive success and the remainder of the game.

BrianGoBlog often stated last year that M would come out with a new wrinkle be successful and then when the other team adjusted M couldn't. The trend seemed to be lessened earlier this season, but the past few weeks I think M has really regressed after their first drives.